Turned Set, Raised on the River

JohnShaft · #1 08-02-2003, 05:44 PM

5/10 online (UB) mostly tightish fairly solid table.

Folded to me in the Cutoff, I open raise with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button 3-bets, Big blind and I call.

Flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, I bet, Button and BB call.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] giving me top set and the nuts.
BB checks, I bet, Button raises, BB folds, I 3-bet, Button caps.

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, button raises.

My move?

Tosh · #2 08-02-2003, 05:55 PM

I fancy he has a set too that he's slow played. I reckon 99, so I'd reraise. I think you can rule out any straights as noone is going to 3 bet pre flop with anything that could make a straight on that board. If he has something like AK spades you'll lose money but I'd be surprised if he did.

JohnShaft · #3 08-04-2003, 05:51 PM

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought Tosh.

I reraised without even thinking about it as the spade didn't really scare me at all.
I fancied him for a over played AA (on the turn) or a properly played 99 after the raise.

He capped and turned over AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the runner runner nut flush.
His capping of the turn headsup after I 3-bet him had thrown me off, but I still think it was a real bad play.
That's twice I've ran into people "overplaying" flush draws lately, both times they've hit and I've been buried.

I guess I have to figure the aggression is starting to pick up at 5/10 level online, but putting that much money in as that big a dog doesn't seem smart to me.

SittingBull · #4 08-04-2003, 06:19 PM

way of knowing that u are not playing hands like JJ,QQ,99,etc. where U preflop raised or that u were on a "steal". Even if U did have one of the above hands,with his AKs and flush draw,he had many outs to beat any of the above hands. Since your hand was concealed,he had no way of knowing if u had a set--you could also have been playing AT,KT,etc. In a reduced short-handed game,all these hands are raisable hands .
Hence,he believed that he was playing a good % hand.
HappyPokering, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull

Louie Landale · #5 08-04-2003, 06:47 PM

(I read the results).

His nut-flush 4-bet on the turn doesn't have to work very often at all (get you to fold) for it to be profitable. Are you going to fold KK? KT? JJ? For many, the anser is "Well, I just 3-bet him and he -bet. I MUST be beat".

- Louie

Mike Gallo · #6 08-04-2003, 07:17 PM

Shaft,

I want you to sit in your opponents chair for the hand.

I think the button played it well. I think I would have played it the exact same way.

Let me echo my thoughts if I had the button for this hand.

The cutoff raises and you dont pop me back. I will put you on a wide range of hands. Since, you didnt pop me back so I don't think you have Aces or Kings. You most likely have a pocket pair.

Flop 9 5 3 BB checks, I bet, Button and BB call. I have two over cards a nut backdoor flush draw. He bet into my preflop raise. I put you on a pocket pair not overcards. I think you would have checkraised with a big pair. Why else would you bet into my preflop raise. You needed to protect a vunerale hand. Perhaps you bet into me because you wanted me to raise. I have to call the pot is getting big and I have outs.

Turn T giving me top set and the nuts.

I now put you on Jacks and I have more outs. You cant push me off this hand. I might as well cap my nut flush draw. You need a Jack.

River River 7 I hit my hand..bet...bet...bet bet.

Just my opinion. Flame Away

Michael

Tosh · #7 08-04-2003, 07:23 PM

Maybe I'm completely missing something but isn't it a negative EV play to cap the betting heads up with a flush draw?

JohnShaft · #8 08-04-2003, 07:35 PM

I wouldn't flame away at all Michael [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
I'm posting hands like these mainly because I want to understand if the plays that I'm seeing others make are bad, or is it just I'm not seeing the value of them?

[I don't know when many would consider the "step up" online between low limit play and more advanced thinking? It's obviously a lot lower than live, and maybe 5-10 IS the start of it?]

I like your (button) read of me on the flop, it's pretty solid. It does look like I don't want to give free overcards, but really I know if I check you will bet. (And I guess I could have CR'd the hand in hindsight anyway, as button would have autobet)

Your turn thinking
Turn T giving me top set and the nuts.
I now put you on Jacks and I have more outs. You cant push me off this hand. I might as well cap my nut flush draw. You need a Jack.

Well when I 3-bet you it's also pretty plain you can't push me off MY hand, no?

The turn RAISE I like. It might get me to fold, or fold the river. There's no way in hell I'm 3 betting you and laying it down to a 4-bet though. So you can't really call the cap a semi-bluff imo.

Right I 3-bet your turn Raise, you have to figure I'm not that scared of a big pocket pair. (Many might call my flop bet and raise the turn with KK+ ?)
So it looks like I have a very big (KK+) pocket pair, or I have even that beat.

Lets put me on worst case scenario. I'm strongly playing QQ (or if you want even JJ) like this.
You now have 9 flush outs, and 6 Aces and Kings.
15 outs - which still makes you 2-1 Dog at least.

That's why I'm not a fan of his 4 bet. At best he's putting money in (getting evens on it) as a 2-1 dog.
I can damn easy have AA or KK here (and raise-called PF for deception) giving you only 12 or maybe 9 outs. Hell you could have even less (though this isn't so likely).

In reality he had 7 outs, was over a 5-1 dog, and put even money in...

[I'll be honest though, if he hadn't capped the turn but merely raised I probably wouldn't have 3-bet the river...]

JohnShaft · #9 08-04-2003, 07:38 PM

I dunno Louie. Maybe people are trying things on me at 5/10 that I'm just not used to seeing at my old limits (.20/.50->3/6) ?

But I sure as hell ain't 3-betting you and folding to a 4-bet. And I'm also VERY unlikely to check fold the river if you 4-bet either...
Are these folds people are now *expecting* me to be able to make so trying moves on me?
(If so I still got the best of the money going in surely)

Mike Gallo · #10 08-04-2003, 09:34 PM

Well when I 3-bet you it's also pretty plain you can't push me off MY hand, no?

If I can't push you off the hand I hope I hit my card and you payoff the river.

If you didnt turn a set, and the button waited for the expenive street to show the true value of his hand, would you still call if you didn't turn a set? Especially after the way the hand got played until this point. Remember he did reraise preflop.

So it looks like I have a very big (KK+) pocket pair, or I have even that beat I have a difficult time believing you have that hand since you did not reraise. Not to mention I hold a King.

[I don't know when many would consider the "step up" online between low limit play and more advanced thinking? It's obviously a lot lower than live, and maybe 5-10 IS the start of it?]

I don't play online however the advanced thinking usually takes place in ring games at the $10-$20 limit. Of course I have played against thinking opponents at $4-$8, $5-$10 and $6-$12.

In reality he had 7 outs, was over a 5-1 dog, and put even money in... Yes, however look at the implied odds. He collected 4 big bets from you on the river.

[I'll be honest though, if he hadn't capped the turn but merely raised I probably wouldn't have 3-bet the river...] Sometimes you use the pass to set up the run.

Michael