A passive players capping range.

[adsman]

Villian was the table passive. After almost 100 hands he had raised preflop exactly three times. Postflop he just loved to slowplay. It obviously made him feel good. Or perhaps he was afraid that his nuts were in fact no good? Who can tell. My question is this. I've got a good hand on the turn. But is it that good against his capping range? And the river?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero??

[POKhER]

100hands is small, i guess he could be running bad and not have AA-QQ/AK much.

Anyhow, if not... you're behind AA/KK/QQ split with AK

But can you really fold TP2P? i think you need to call down and C-C the river...

its a tempting bet, but you say he loves to slowplay is this to the turn or river or does he vary them lol?

If its river, C/C as he's told you he has a monster.

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
100hands is small, i guess he could be running bad and not have AA-QQ/AK much.

Anyhow, if not... you're behind AA/KK/QQ split with AK

But can you really fold TP2P? i think you need to call down and C-C the river...

its a tempting bet, but you say he loves to slowplay is this to the turn or river or does he vary them lol?

If its river, C/C as he's told you he has a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

You let him talk you right into being scared too. Easy bet/call.

[Peter Harris]

excepting AA-QQ, JJ and TT may cap too, AQs is a possibility along with AKs/AKo which hits about 3%. Bet-call the river.

I hate bet/fold. I don't "probe for information" on the river against a normally passive but tricky player plus he may toss in a raise with AK if he thinks you're thinking bet/fold. I consider a loss to AA-QQ, tie with AK, and win vs. the less likely TT, JJ, AQ, and opt for check/call. No value bet here.

[Peter Harris]

i think since the turn wasn't raised, bet-calling the river is good. If the turn was raised, check-call is fine, but i think we're giving up a lot checking and seeing it checked behind (when villain has JJ, TT).

I would bet this river and curse if i get river slowplayed. But the fact is we mustn't just assume stuff from 100 hands, he could have caught a wave of cards as cruddy as i saw ads catch yesterday which is why the raising has been sparse.

I think bet the river, villain calls and shows JJ, TT, or an uber passive AKo/AKs/AQs for the chop/win. I still like a call as villain may wait to the river to raise AK so bet folding makes me feel a little ill.

Goot debate. keep it coming.

[POKhER]

If he raises the river, this is -EV in the long run IMO.

If he raises turn then betting is fine as i dont expect a raise and expect to be ahead.

I think i covered all the areas of the question and even stated sample size was small.

Whats the result ads?

if he raises the turn why is that better than him raising the river? IF he really is that super passive and a flush card came i wouldnt be surprised if he didnt even raise if he has you beat but i really cant see anything besdies a bet call with top 2.

poker i have no idea what you said there if he raises the river it is -ev but if he raises the turn then betting again is fine? im lost

[POKhER]

Betting the river if he raised the turn is ABSOLUTELY STUPID.

You misread my post so i'll word it better now.

If this player slowplays to the turn where he raises, in this case he didn't raise so we can assume he doesn't have such a monster and this may be a value bet.

However, if he slowplays to the river and loves raising with monsters then this bet is probably a bad idea as i think he will raise... having to call this raise sucks.

So i think its a better idea to Check/Call(Pot size) or bet fold. bet/calling is "Comfortable" but its one of those times i think your beat so often its -EV longterm vs such an opponent so its the worst of all decisions.

Anyone disagree?

[imported_leader]

It's only a 100 hands. You're seeing monsters IMO. Bet/call the river.