TT makes a set with a draw heavy flop, ugly turn card

RustyCJ · #1 12-07-2005, 08:12 PM

SB is 49/3.0/0.46 after 130 hands
MP3 is 52/4.35/.36 after 23 hands, however at the time of this hand I had no read on him at all.

Flop - I considered raising the turn if a brick fell, but I raised the flop because of all the callers I would have. No doubt I have the best hand and can still improve to beat the hands that are drawing against me.

Turn - ugly card, should I raise here and try to isolate with MP3? I called because I thought I might be behind now and need to improve to win.

River - I called because I might still win and the 2 looks like a total brick, when SB woke up I was pretty sure I was toast.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

River: (14.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, SB raises, MP1 folds, MP3 3-bets, Hero folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

Greg J · #2 12-07-2005, 08:16 PM

As ugly as the turn card is, you have to raise that turn, mainly because it's so ugly. Does this make sense or should I explain further?

The river fold looks like a good lay down to me.

RustyCJ · #3 12-07-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As ugly as the turn card is, you have to raise that turn, mainly because it's so ugly. Does this make sense or should I explain further?

The river fold looks like a good lay down to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

As backwards as that type of turn play initially seems, I actually did give it serious thought and wondered if I was just giving better odds to the SB and MP1 by simply calling. This almost felt to me that calling is the worst play here, but I could so easily be ahead of 2 pair from MP3 that folding wasn't right either.

On the turn I was nervous about SB and MP1 but that river card looked like a huge brick so I felt good about the call.

HouseCalls · #4 12-07-2005, 08:43 PM

On the flop I think this is one of those situations where there are alot of cards that can cripple your hand on the turn so you should not raise and plan on raising the turn if a blank falls. (However this is a play that I get wrong more often than I get it right so I'm interested to see what others say).
Once the bad card comes c/c turn & river (fold to raise)

tyler_cracker · #5 12-07-2005, 08:48 PM

I would like to see you explain further, greg.

My reasoning for wanting to raise the turn is that we don't want to give cheap cards to a lone [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9, or K. The straight draws might even fold if they don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. If MP3 3-bets or no one folds, that's okay because we have many outs to our boat+.

I agree that the river is a good fold, but not so much because of SB (what could he have that makes sense to play this way? 22? J2?). No, i'm worried about passive MP3 bet/3-betting the river.

milesdyson · #6 12-07-2005, 08:49 PM

no. our equity on the flop is waaaaaaaay too high to not raise. think about it. we have 10 outs to a full house or quads and the best hand. with the nut flush draw we have ace-high and 9 outs to a hand weaker than a full house, yet not raising here with the nut flush draw would be retarded.

this is a must raise on the flop with like 5 billion percent pot equity.

tyler_cracker · #7 12-07-2005, 08:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I think this is one of those situations where there are alot of cards that can cripple your hand on the turn so you should not raise and plan on raising the turn if a blank falls. (However this is a play that I get wrong more often than I get it right so I'm interested to see what others say).

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah. We've almost certainly got the best hand right now, and we have a huge redraw even if the flush/straight card does hit. Just raise now and take their money.

Shillx · #8 12-07-2005, 09:05 PM

Raise the turn.

Don't ever call on the flop when the pot is big and you hold a set. I can't imagine there is ever a time when it is correct to call on the flop when the pot is >10 SB + you hold a set.

Again when you combine the outs against a flush or straight with the chance that you are still good, you are raising this turn for value. It is only slightly wrong (very slightly) to raise when someone has you beat, but it is a huge mistake to just call when you are ahead. Keep pumping this baby.

RustyCJ · #9 12-07-2005, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
no. our equity on the flop is waaaaaaaay too high to not raise. think about it. we have 10 outs to a full house or quads and the best hand. with the nut flush draw we have ace-high and 9 outs to a hand weaker than a full house, yet not raising here with the nut flush draw would be retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is why I raised the flop, look at all those callers and i'm 100% certain I have the best hand here. I have or will have as many outs as they do.

HouseCalls · #10 12-07-2005, 09:12 PM

OK I surrender. I remain lost as to when you actually do use this play. I don't want to start a long conversation here but I really need some help on this so I started this thread hoping that you guys can help me figure this out.
Help!!!