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#5
11-29-2005, 07:41 PM
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Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
[ QUOTE ]
Wake Forest -210 Illinois Pk 30 to win 54...thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] Parlays are almost always -EV. For simplicity, say you have 2 normal bets (ignoring your moneyline for now) and let's say for simplicity that they each have a 60% chance to hit (being VERY generous here but I like using round numbers). The chance that they both hit is 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.36 meaning that you would need a payout of 1/0.36 = 2.78 to 1 to make it profitable. Most parlays are what, only 2.5 to 1? Add in the fact that your chance to hit is more likely around 55% at best if you are a winning player and your EV gets even worse. Your moneyline in the parlay complicates it a little bit more but I'm sure it's also a -EV bet. Your book wouldn't offer it otherwise. You are better off making the 2 bets separately. 
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#6
11-29-2005, 07:41 PM
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Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
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I really, really, wish you would stop posting. [/ QUOTE ] you really didn't give a thought on his pick. Also, you saw it was his thread before you looked at it, maybe you should just ignore it, or fade his picks. About the picks, I think its a horrible Parlay. Wake is really in a toss up game here. They aren't great but neither is Wisconsin. I really think -210 is a horrible value. If you think they're gonna win give the 4.5 points (I havn't checked the line in the last two hours so if its moved Im sorry) and bet it straight up. You also could have had Illinios +2 so you missed the boat there. Ken
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#8
11-29-2005, 09:18 PM
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Re: Great 2 Team Parlay tonight (ESPN)
I think this is obviously a bad bet, but that doesn't bother me so much. However, I do think it's a waste of space for you to just post a bet and say "Thoughts?"
If you want some opinions on a line, why not offer some of your own? As it is now, you're asking for help yet providing nothing.
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