Flop Two Pair, Check Raise, then Fold to a 3-Bet?

[rharless]

Colorado $2-$5. I have the single $2 blind with K3o.

Two limpers. I make a comment to Tight But Friendly Button about this is MY two bucks he can win, not just any two bucks. He thinks a half-second, says "all right" and he limps. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] I check. 4 players / $8 to the flop.

Button is a Good Player. He has let me sweat some of his hands, and I have played with him before, from which I know he has both good preflop hand selection and solid postflop skills. We have good debates (off the table) on how to play hands so I have concluded he is a Thinking, Savvy Player.

The prior two orbits, I have check-raised from UTG/blind and won both times with a flopped set.

Flop: K 8 3 rainbow

I check, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, button bets $5.

I raise. One MP folds, the other MP calls $10 cold.

Button 3-bets.

I go into thinking mode. I hem and haw for, it seems, about 30 seconds. I decide that 4-betting would have been a good option had I not needed so long to think about it. Even then, I still do not like this situation at all.

I show my hand to my left-hand neighbor, a best friend of mine. I fold. [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] She widens her eyes at me and says "OH MY GOD!"

Turn and river are blanks, MP and button continue check/bet/call pattern. Results tomorrow.

My 30 second thinking: What could I beat?
-He can't be raising on draw as there are no draws.
-He "could" be 3-betting a hand like AK/KQ/KX/AA? but (a) I do not think he would have limped preflop with any of these hands and (b) I do not think he would 3-bet my checkraise with just one pair on this raggedy board. I am 80%+ certain of point A and 90%+ certain of point B.
-This leaves me with the following possible hands for him: 88, 33, K8s, K3s, or very outside chance of KK (again, don't think he would ever limp preflop with this at this table). I thought 88/33 the more likely of his hands partly b/c he 3-bet, but more so because I put the $10 cold caller on a weak King, which reduces the chances that he can hold a king.
-In the back of my mind is a comment in a recent post about how holdem is a game of relative value of hands, not absolute value.

So, I folded.

Flame away...

[lil']

K-8s, K-3s and 3-3 seem kinda loose for him to call with (esp. K-3s, toss that out). 8-8 is a possibility. K-J is a possibility. A limp A-A is a possibility. If you are that sure and know this player that well that you know he has you beaten, then I guess good fold, you probably saved a ton. Also, having the other player in the hand with you increases the possibility that he has a good hand.

I would stay, though. Your check-raise doesn't automatically mean a big hand. It could be any king. This may be too loose on my part. At least you put thought into your decision, that's always a good thing. I probably would have capped without thinking too much at all, which is a weakness of mine (not thinking enough).

And, FWIW, I wouldn't show a laydown to anyone, even a friend. [img]/forums/images/icons/smirk.gif[/img]

I hope your read was right!

[rharless]

K-8s, K-3s and 3-3 seem kinda loose for him to call with (esp. K-3s, toss that out). 8-8 is a possibility. K-J is a possibility.

Yes, all very true. FWIW, his body language indicated to me that he called preflop here where he would not normally call, b/c of the comment I made about winning my $2 blind. He looked at his cards, kinda tilted his head like he was thinking, and then shrugged and said "all right" and called. All the same, I did not really think Kxs for two pair was particularly likely.

I have seen him raise KJo preflop in this situation before. That doesn't mean he does it every time and I'm sure that he doesn't, actually, but all the same I did not think he would limp with preflop KJ AND 3-bet KJ against my C/R on the flop.

I probably would have capped without thinking too much at all

The cap in Colorado is six bets ($30). Still cap?

[bernie]

this can also depend on what he thinks your c/r standards are. do you only c/r with 2 pair or better? you said youve bought 2 pots with a c/r. if you havent shown anyone those hands, someone may be just forcing the issue with you with a 3 bet.

is he that tight to where he'd only 3 bet with the hands you mentioned? many are, so your read isnt unreasonable. but if i had KQ or KJ, i may have 3 bet you. then maybe check the turn behind you. especially if i havent seen what youve been c/r'ing with.

"I hem and haw for, it seems, about 30 seconds. I decide that 4-betting would have been a good option had I not needed so long to think about it. "

this is pretty good that you notice this. though it doesnt mean they notice it. plan ahead a little, before you c/r. know what youll do if any one of them 3 bets you. sounds like you weren't expecting the 3 bet. btw...you may get more action on your next c/r because of this. you may also get 3 bet again.

however, it may also be that you are unsure as to whether you really should have folded. hindsight being bothersome and all. which means maybe you shouldve called. unless it went to showdown anyways and you saw what he had.

b

[bernie]

i might 4 bet this. if he 5 bets, then i may lay it down.

b

[rharless]

if you havent shown anyone those hands, someone may be just forcing the issue with you with a 3 bet.

I showed both hands down when I got called to the river and they were both flopped sets.

is he that tight to where he'd only 3 bet with the hands you mentioned? many are, so your read isnt unreasonable.

I think in this particular situation, yes. Against typical opponents I see him 3-betting more liberally.

plan ahead a little, before you c/r. know what youll do if any one of them 3 bets you. sounds like you weren't expecting the 3 bet.

dead accurate. I was not expecting it at all.

it may also be that you are unsure as to whether you really should have folded.

exactly. But it went to showdown so I saw what he had. That matters somewhat in my opinion on this hand, of course, but not as much as it used to. The one thing I AM improving on is being able to evaluate a street decision without being river-results oriented. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

I will be in Seattle the first weekend of August. Will PM you as the time draws closer.

[Clarkmeister]

You should be checkraising there with holdings like A3 and 78. He should know that. Therefore he should be 3-betting you with top pair - any kicker.

He wouldn't have to think about limping with a pocket pair, therefore the only hand that beats you is specifically K8. Also note that most players with top two on that board would flat call, let you lead at the turn, and trap both you and the player in the middle for 2 bets on the turn.

I'd 4-bet, or consider checkraising the turn.

[Clarkmeister]

"K-8s, K-3s and 3-3 seem kinda loose for him to call with "

In that structure on the button, he not only should call with all of those hands, he *could* also call with 83s without making a mistake. Folding 33 in particular would be a big error.

[onegymrat]

If button is as solid of player as you view him, you are correct to assume there are just a handful of cards he could be holding. He probably has 88 or K8s. Other big hands such as AK he would have raised preflop.

But check-raising is a concern. Slowplaying is often overrated, especially in your situation. If you would have bet, and he raised, you would have seen the flop for the same money that it cost you. I don't think folding was a mistake, but not the best option. I would have capped it to take out MP so you are headsup with button.

[Clarkmeister]

If she had bet out (which I prefer in this situation), then she should be doing so in order to 3-bet a button raiser, not to flat-call and go into a shell.

Her checkraise in this spot is actually a poor choice since she has essentially a "monster" relative to the board. There's no reason to shut out the field, particularly with this structure where there is little money in preflop.