In the spirit of b2b.

TripleH68 · #1 11-24-2005, 03:36 PM

Back to basics.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets...

UTG+2 is a thinking TAG. 22/12/1.8. Easy 3-bet. 

6 folds, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls.

Cap tells me what? His hand is in the upper range of his raising standards.
He knows I might make this play with any pp. AA,AK,KK,QQ,JJ or even TT? 

Flop: (9.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

If villain is ahead I do not want to be 3-bet here.
If villain is behind let's see him fire again on the turn. What will the turn bring? 

Turn: (5.66 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises...

Fold or raise? Maybe the cap means KK,QQ,JJ? Let's take a shot at him. I have a tight image.
Surely villain knows I have no problem laying down when I am beat. 

UTG+2 calls.

He hesitated quite awhile before making this call. Was he looking through my stats?
Should I take this to mean I was correct and he holds KK-JJ. Surely any ace does not hesitate so long. 

River: (9.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets...

I know he is a good player. Does calling the turn mean he is calling the river for sure? I think so and I believe this bet is -EV. 

Happy Thanksgiving. How did I do here?

damaniac · #2 11-24-2005, 03:40 PM

On the turn, you need him to fold about 25% of the time for this to be good (given the action, you're ahead almost never here). Given that often he'll actually have an A, and when he doesn't he probably still calls down quite a bit, I don't especially like it. I really think the river is spewage absent a specific read that he peels/folds a lot.

krimson · #3 11-24-2005, 04:20 PM

I will try this once in a while but all in all I don't think the bluff-the-ace-vs-a-cap trick works often enough.

This river bet is really bad imo, he's not calling the turn with JJ-KK intending to fold the river!!

QTip · #4 11-24-2005, 04:28 PM

Hey:

I hate to be stupid and talk about PF here, but here I go. I like to mess around with ranges and PF equity and so forth, and my winrate for mid pps is something about which I've never been happy. I'm starting to think I'm overplaying them a bit in these types of situatinos.

Ranges here for a good, thinking TAG will, of course, vary based on the type of game it is, but I think this is a happy medium in the sim below. However, I know having positino and initiative are worth something here, but I don't know if making this play, especially still in EMP is really adding any value at all to the bottom line. I think sometimes we (me), treat 99 more like TT or JJ.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.0868 % 45.44% 00.64% { 99 }
Hand 2: 53.9132 % 53.27% 00.64% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

Thinking about folding 99 makes me sick, but I'm not so sure any more it's an easy 3 bet.

Thoughts?

Oh...so I'm not a total moron...postflop.

Flop, I guess you were planning on raising a lot of turns...

Turn, I'm done man....it sucks, but the pot's not that big, and it's the % play.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.8377 % 20.26% 00.58% { 99 }
Hand 2: 79.1623 % 78.58% 00.58% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

W. Deranged · #5 11-24-2005, 04:59 PM

I think the wonderful thing about the turn A is not that it gives us a good card to bluff at (KK is not folding that often here anyway, particularly if he has a good read on you).

The real value of that card is that it makes it completely clear you are behind and can fold with total confidence.

I do like the idea of raising a safe turn and taking a free showdown if the turn had been nicer, though...

hobbsmann · #6 11-24-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the wonderful thing about the turn A is not that it gives us a good card to bluff at (KK is not folding that often here anyway, particularly if he has a good read on you).

The real value of that card is that it makes it completely clear you are behind and can fold with total confidence.

I do like the idea of raising a safe turn and taking a free showdown if the turn had been nicer, though...

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with all of this.

Redd · #7 11-24-2005, 06:46 PM

So doesn't the flop call potentially give Villain a cheap draw at 6 outs if he's behind?

bobhalford · #8 11-24-2005, 06:55 PM

Do you think that a river bet will chase him out of the pot more than 20% of the time? I might just follow up my bluff here with a river bet/fold, seeing that it's my only chance to win the hand and JJ/QQ/KK are folding here I think more than 1 in 5 times (10-1 odds on the river but half the time he has AA/Ax and calls) because villain might think he's screwed after the turn raise and made a weak call (wouldn't he 3-bet the turn with AK/AQ?) on the turn intending to fold if you bet the river.

So it's probably not all that close, but I think there is an argument for a river bet. At least if he calls and you lose, he knows what you did with your 99 there and you can use this hand as an image reference in future hands.

Piiop · #9 11-24-2005, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So doesn't the flop call potentially give Villain a cheap draw at 6 outs if he's behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of, but the villain would be correct to call anyway. Waiting to raise a safe (non A/K) turn will put way more pressure on him to fold and he may even incorrectly fold on the turn. It also allows us to decide whether or not to take a free showdown or value bet.

Lestat · #10 11-24-2005, 07:54 PM

If villian was weak/tight, I like your play of taking a shot even while knowing that you're probably beat. But if villian plays well, he's not likely to let you push him off a better hand. Since, there aren't many hands you're still ahead of after the ace turns, you should simply fold against a good player. Discretion is the better part of valor here.