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#1
11-23-2005, 10:35 AM
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Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
Two plays:
Denver -2 over Dallas Kansas City -3 over New England I don't post here as often as I did last year, mostly due to the fact that I can't post a live link [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Anyway, after a bad start I've come back to 5-5 this year. If you want to see all the plays of the week, the site is howtogamble.net... you can find them from there. Good Luck all [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] 
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#3
11-23-2005, 11:52 AM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
Two plays: Denver -2 over Dallas Kansas City -3 over New England I don't post here as often as I did last year, mostly due to the fact that I can't post a live link [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Anyway, after a bad start I've come back to 5-5 this year. If you want to see all the plays of the week, the site is howtogamble.net... you can find them from there. Good Luck all [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't advise betting on a team going on the road after 3 straight covers but Denver did pull it off 2 weeks ago against the Raiders. They're a solid 7-2-1 ATS on the season, Dallas is 6-3-1.
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#4
11-23-2005, 12:04 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
Denver -2 over Dallas [/ QUOTE ] Everyone is on Denver in this game. This line opened at pk, is now 2.5 at some places, and looks like there is a chance it could push 3. Can anyone explain to me why Denver deserves to be a 2-3 point road favorite in a Thanksgiving day game over a team with essentially the same record? Just FYI ... if this hits 3, I will be all over Dallas.
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#5
11-23-2005, 12:12 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Denver -2 over Dallas [/ QUOTE ] Everyone is on Denver in this game. This line is now 2.5 at some places and looks like there is a chance it could push 3. Can anyone explain to me why Denver deserves to be a 2-3 point road favorite in a Thanksgiving day game over a team with essentially the same record? Just FYI ... if this hits 3, I will be all over Dallas. [/ QUOTE ] You can get a criminal +127 on the money line at Pinny which is actually more valuable than +3 -110. +3 is available at -125 at Bowmans when you buy the half-pt.
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#7
11-23-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You can get a criminal +127 on the money line at Pinny which is actually more valuable than +3 -110. [/ QUOTE ] I don't have my database handy, but I'm pretty sure this is wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I value a half-point buy from 3 at 4.73%; a full-point buy of 2 at 1.68%; a full-point buy of 1 at 1.63%, for a total of 8.04%. 110/(110+100) = standard 52.38% 100/(127+100) = 44.05% 52.38% - 44.05% = 8.33%; the value of the buy is less at 8.04%. If equating +3 -110 to a money line, the money line should be +125.5.... 52.38% - 8.04% = 44.34%, which flipped to a cent line is +125.5 These are all by my own calculations, naturally. I find the estimate of 10% for NFL 3 a shade too high.
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#8
11-23-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Denver -2 over Dallas [/ QUOTE ] Everyone is on Denver in this game. This line opened at pk, is now 2.5 at some places, and looks like there is a chance it could push 3. Can anyone explain to me why Denver deserves to be a 2-3 point road favorite in a Thanksgiving day game over a team with essentially the same record? Just FYI ... if this hits 3, I will be all over Dallas. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with you - to me those teams are pretty similar. Solid defense with a QB trying to not screw it up (both of these guys are going to implode before the season's over IMO). Denver has the better running game, but I prefer Parcells, homefield, and the points.
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#9
11-23-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone explain to me why Denver deserves to be a 2-3 point road favorite in a Thanksgiving day game over a team with essentially the same record? [/ QUOTE ] Because Denver is the best team in the NFL right now [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I keed I keed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#10
11-23-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: Play of the Week, 4-1 last 5 weeks
When the line is +3 -110, the ML at every book is in the +130 to +140 range usually. There is no way the market (and the books) would allow that much of an edge to just sit out there week after week.
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