River raise-fold...

[Entity]

5-handed 10/20. I have a fair amount of playing time against this villain. I consider him loose and not particularly straightforward, but he isn't good. He's not overaggressive, though by 10/20 standards he's certainly not passive either.

Folded to me in the CO. Button is tight, SB is semiloose (~40% VPIP) but doesn't defend his SB all that much. I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Folded to villain in BB, who calls.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain checks, I bet, and he calls.

The turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain checks, I bet, and he checkraises. I call.

The river is the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain bets and I raise, intending to fold to a 3-bet.

Rob

[spydog]

I think this works. You get the most from a bluff by calling the turn CR. The only risk is when A7 3-bets you on the river and you fold a better hand, but I think this is doubtful based on your description of villian. There are a lot of worse 2-pair hands and even Ax hands that will pay off your checkraise.

[sfer]

I get 3-bets on the turn because a bare semi-bluffing T seems very likely.

[ggbman]

Seeing as basically any 2 pair combo plays this hand the same way villian has, you are not folding this hand! Seriously though, i would 3 bet the turn. If he's passive and you dont fill on the river, you can c/f, but given your description i want more money going in somewhere/ J9, 89, T9, AT, and hands along these lines are very common holdings for villian here. I would 3 bet the turn next time, and raise/call a river 3 bet here. If you don't feel comfortable doing that, just call. Up to the river, you have done nothing to represent a hand stronger than 1 pair.

[Entity]

Since the vast majority of villains semibluffing hands will bet the river, I don't lose any bets against a semibluff by doing this (if I 3-bet we get 3 bets on the turn and 0 bets on the river; if I call and raise we get 2 bets on the turn and 1 bet on the river unless he has a pair+draw and calls my river raise, in which case we get 4 bets by call/raising). If villain isn't likely to bluff a missed draw on the river this changes things, but I think the vast majority of times someone checkraises the turn with a semibluff (be it pair+draw or pure draw), they will follow through on the river. Finally, though it isn't incredibly likely, I gain an extra bet from an airbluff this way.

In addition, I have the protection of being less likely to be 3-bet on the river by a worse hand. It's hard for many hands that aren't A9/88/99/QT to 3-bet this river, especially with this opponent; I find enough situations where I get capped on the turn by a worse 2pr (J9/98/etc) and make a crying call on the river, but I can only think of a few situations (and villains) where I have been 3-bet on the river by a worse hand. This generally allows me to show down the best hand for 4 bets, and prevents me from showing down the worst hand for 5 (though at the cost of possibly folding the best hand, which may be more likely than I currently believe).

My thoughts may be off on this, so I'd love some corrections.

Rob

[Wynton]

Tell me if this is villain's possible range of hands:

-Ax (with x being lower than a 9)
-98, J9, J8 (so he has lower 2 pair)
-10x (either just straight draw, or draw plus 1 pair)
-trips (9s or 8s)
-10Q (made straight)

If this is the possible range, I think I'd have trouble folding on the river.

[PokerNoob]

If this guy is betting his semibluff on the river, isn't he also calling it on the river? If yes, then 3-bet the turn, because he's committed himself to it. Like you say, there are times you're going to get capped by worse there and only 3 bet by better on the river. I don't get the "wait until he can beat me, then put in an extra bet there" strategy.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Rob,

I like your analysis. The one worry for me is that this type of player will likely 3bet A4 on the river, no? Other than that I think it's a good line and I don't think the possibility of A4 is high enough to call a river 3bet.

Surf

[setjes]

I like ur reasoning. Thats why I play it the same.
Do u just call a river 7,9,T,J,Q?

[MAxx]

"I can only think of a few situations (and villains) where I have been 3-bet on the river by a worse hand."

Maybe if you called a little more, you would be shown some more... kind of kidding, but not totally.

I'd just be careful to take it too far.... raise/folding 2p on the river like that.

Last night I tried to steal with A5o and got called by a very loose passive. I caught a 5 on the flop (second pair).

I kept betting when a 3 hit the board on the turn...he just called.

The river brought an A, giving me top and 3rd pair. I bet and was checkraised. There was a possible wheel....but I threebet, which was in retrospect probably a mistake agains this loose passive.

Anyway the very passive guy capped my river 3bet. I felt that my call of the the river cap was -EV, because at this point I couldnt imagaine him capping with less than a set....and started to think he was going to table the wheel.

Anyway I made a poor decision to 3bet the river here, it would have been good vs others, but not with this read.

Despite all this, I called and the guy show A5 and we chop. Guy was around 54/5/.5