Re-raised all-in with top pair+flush draw.

[poincaraux]

I've been pretty aggro and a little dumb recently. I've also been laying down to re-raises quite a bit. On the other hand, he mini-bets and I pot it back at him. His mini-bet could easily be anything from air to a set. When he pots it back at me, I have to shift his range more towards sets, right? But how much? I easily have the odds to call against overpairs, other top pairs, two-pair hands and other flush draws. Not so much against sets, though.

For what it's worth, I'm learning to fold overpairs here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($48.05)
UTG ($63.40)
MP ($29.37)
Button ($95.35)
SB ($53)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $3</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG pushes $58.40 (All-In), Hero calls $31.05 (All-In).

[Publos Nemesis]

I am not sure what you are doing calling a raise with QTs. But hey, you hit hard. By raising to 15 you are saying you want to play it for your stack. You have a ton of outs against overpairs (14) and 9 outs against a set. Against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you are bareley ahead (he has 6+7=13 outs. However, I don't mind doubling up here while marginally getting the worst of it.

In the end, I suspect you lost, but that's what you get when you play QTs for your stack. It's not a great hand...but you got your money in on a great flop.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sure what you are doing calling a raise with QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]
The table dynamics might have affected this somewhat: there has been a fair bit of raising, and not many hands have been shown down. A 3/4 pot bet on the flop or turn usually takes it down, so I figure I can bluff some of the time, hit some of the time and fold some of the time. I don't always call with QTs here, but I often do. It's right at the bottom my range for "usually call" .. are you saying that's so-so, bad or terrible? This is my second day of playing 6-max. I have the feeling that I'm supposed to be playing more hands, but I could very easily be wrong about what exactly that means. I saw other people at the table calling here with Kxo, for what that's worth.

[ QUOTE ]
But hey, you hit hard. By raising to 15 you are saying you want to play it for your stack. You have a ton of outs against overpairs (14) and 9 outs against a set. Against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you are bareley ahead (he has 6+7=13 outs. However, I don't mind doubling up here while marginally getting the worst of it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Despite the fact that I put almost half of it in there, there's a good chunk of dead money in the pot. I could be wrong here, but I think it's a clear call against anything but a set. So, I guess my questions now are 1) how often does he have a set here and 2) should I have just folded pre-flop and not gotten here in the first place?

[ QUOTE ]
In the end, I suspect you lost, but that's what you get when you play QTs for your stack. It's not a great hand...but you got your money in on a great flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're right here. I mean, I certainly didn't expect to flop 8c9cJc. So, are you saying "why play QTs if you're not going to stick it in on a flop like this?"

Thanks

Would this player raise in EP with 44 or 77? Without prior knowledge, I would assume no, but maybe this is a poor assumption. I wouldn't anyhow, but I realise not all players play that way :P

In the end, I'd have to call. I expect to see overpairs, AQ, and other flush draws enough.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
Would this player raise in EP with 44 or 77? Without prior knowledge, I would assume no, but maybe this is a poor assumption. I wouldn't anyhow, but I realise not all players play that way :P

In the end, I'd have to call. I expect to see overpairs, AQ, and other flush draws enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arrrgh .. I'm such a bad player. I don't think I was thinking about his pre-flop raise enough. He would make it with 77 sometimes, but probably never with 44. In order to repent, I'll actually do the math:

He can have

AA,KK - 12 combinations, I own 50% of the pot
QQ,77 - 4 combinations, I own 30% of the pot
AcXc, KcXc - 15 combinations, 10 outs to dodge, I own 55% of the pot (If he has precisely AcKc, I have 13 outs to dodge, but I'm assuming that comes out in the wash .. is that a reasonable assumption?)

So, if we just give him equal chances of having any of these, that's 31 combinations total, and I own

(12/31)*0.5 + (4/31)*0.3 + (15/31)*0.55 = 50%

of the pot .. easy call. At this point, I'm putting in $31.05 to win $55.30. That is, I'm getting 1.8:1 on my call, so I need to own about 36% of the pot.

Wow. I hadn't actually worked that out before. I can make this call when hero is much stronger. If he can only have AcKc (1 combination, 13 outs, I own 50%) or sets I get

(1/5)*0.5 + (4/5)*0.3 = 34%

of the pot, which is almost good enough by itself. If I throw in one hand I've ignored earlier (AcQx 2 combinations, I own 40%), I'm back to exactly calling.

That was interesting. I now think this is a clear call against any reasonable range for him. What do ya'll think?

(This ignores the question of whether I should have folded QTs pre-flop)

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would this player raise in EP with 44 or 77? Without prior knowledge, I would assume no, but maybe this is a poor assumption. I wouldn't anyhow, but I realise not all players play that way :P

In the end, I'd have to call. I expect to see overpairs, AQ, and other flush draws enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arrrgh .. I'm such a bad player. I don't think I was thinking about his pre-flop raise enough. He would make it with 77 sometimes, but probably never with 44. In order to repent, I'll actually do the math:

He can have

AA,KK - 12 combinations, I own 50% of the pot
QQ,77 - 4 combinations, I own 30% of the pot
AcXc, KcXc - 15 combinations, 10 outs to dodge, I own 55% of the pot (If he has precisely AcKc, I have 13 outs to dodge, but I'm assuming that comes out in the wash .. is that a reasonable assumption?)

So, if we just give him equal chances of having any of these, that's 31 combinations total, and I own

(12/31)*0.5 + (4/31)*0.3 + (15/31)*0.55 = 50%

of the pot .. easy call. At this point, I'm putting in $31.05 to win $55.30. That is, I'm getting 1.8:1 on my call, so I need to own about 36% of the pot.

Wow. I hadn't actually worked that out before. I can make this call when hero is much stronger. If he can only have AcKc (1 combination, 13 outs, I own 50%) or sets I get

(1/5)*0.5 + (4/5)*0.3 = 34%

of the pot, which is almost good enough by itself. If I throw in one hand I've ignored earlier (AcQx 2 combinations, I own 40%), I'm back to exactly calling.

That was interesting. I now think this is a clear call against any reasonable range for him. What do ya'll think?

(This ignores the question of whether I should have folded QTs pre-flop)

[/ QUOTE ]
I seem to think that this is way more interesting than the rest of you. In order the hopes of getting some more comments, here's some more analysis:

What if the other guy is playing a more mixed strategy? That is, what if he does this 100% of the time with sets, X% of the time with AA,KK and Y% of the time with AcXc,KcXc? Let's say he does it 50% of the time with those other hands. Then, we have 12*0.5 overpairs and 15*0.5 flushes for 6+4+7.5=17.5 combinations:

(6/17.5)*0.5 + (4/17.5)*0.3 + (7.5/17.5)*0.55 = 48%

If he does it 25% of the time, 3+4+3.75=10.75 combinations:

(3/10.75)*0.5 + (4/10.75)*0.3 + (3.75/10.75)*0.55 = 44%

This call is looking pretty dang easy unless I'm positive he has a set. If X=Y, I run into trouble around X=Y=5%. If one of them is zero, I run into trouble around 10%. I don't know that it's interesting to get more detailed here.

So, what does he think I have? If he has a set and I don't, he's crushing anything but 5c6c (or a better set), so he should certainly stick it in here. Overpairs should be more sketched out. They're crushed by sets (which seem reasonable here), they're about even with good flush draws. If they don't have the club themselves, any flush draw has the odds to call. They're still ahead of things like AcQc, though, so maybe they should just stick it in anyway. I guess it's the same question for him as me: how often does he think I have a set. If he has AcXc or KcXc, he should do the same thing I did above: figure out how often I need to have a set to beat him.

Which still leaves the question of whether I should have gotten here with QTs anyway. Anyone wanna help me out with that (more than "yes" or "no" please!).

[poincaraux]

Results: he shows 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] river 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I suck out.

[teamdonkey]

all i can do is pretty much echo what publos said. The call preflop is bad, but you hit it hard. Pot odds make this an auto-call. You'll see AQ, KQ, other flush draws and air way more than you need to to make this correct.