Bad beat jackpot or lottery?

Which would be more +EV, paying the extra $.50 rake to play for a chance at the Bad Beat Jackpot or buying lottery tickets with the same money.

I ask because the Jackpot doesn't seem like a very good deal....but I've actually hit one on a different site and I don't know anyone who's ever hit the lottery.

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Which would be more +EV, paying the extra $.50 rake to play for a chance at the Bad Beat Jackpot or buying lottery tickets with the same money.

I ask because the Jackpot doesn't seem like a very good deal....but I've actually hit one on a different site and I don't know anyone who's ever hit the lottery.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are points at which both become EV+, but its so rare id focus your mental capacities on other things.

98% of the time, it's which is less EV- rather than which is more EV+.

but as for a number, i think i read somewhere that the party BBJ becomes EV+ when it reaches 450,000$ or so.

[L0QTiS]

[ QUOTE ]

but as for a number, i think i read somewhere that the party BBJ becomes EV+ when it reaches 450,000$ or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the chart on the bonuswhores website:

BBJ Level Required for +EV:
Level BBJ Level
$2-$4 $130,000
$3-$6 $149,000
$5-$10 $177,000
$10-$20 $189,000
$15-$30 $198,000

see BW Party review

[MicroBob]

As I've stated before...just because bonus-whores says so doesn't make it so.
It's one way of interpreting the +EV points (that I still disagree with).


regardless, there are points at which the BBJ becomes +EV and it is not an excessively large amount.

There aren't very many points at which the lottery is +EV. Especially when you consider split jackpots and taxes.
Since you would be foolish to take the 'spread out over 30 yrs' option you are actually only getting a fraction of the amount that is advertised.



I sometimes play the BBJ tables when I believe the inferior play on the tables is +EV enough to make up for the extra $0.50 jp drop.
The jackpot is probably a little more than +EV when I play these tables.

I can't even remember the last time I have played the lottery. I believe I bought a ticket or two about 10 years ago..but I couldn't swear to it.

[maurile]

Just look at the payout rate of each one.

I believe most state lotteries pay out about 60% of what they take in. So playing the lottery has an EV of -40%. (I haven't ever looked the 60% figure up; I just remember reading it somewhere, but I don't know how reliable it is. Try to Google it if you care.)

I remember hearing somewhere that my local live casino charges some kind of "management fee" for collecting the jackpot drop -- something on the order of 50%, although I don't think that info is very reliable. But if we accept that figure as correct, then the jackpot drop has an EV of -50%. (Actually, it is more or less than this depending on how many other bonus-type things the player takes advantage of. Stuff like the guaranteed portion of tournament prize pools, drawings, bingo bonus balls, etc. are all funded out of the jackpot drop.)

So if you accept those two figures as being correct (and I can't vouch for either one), the state lottery would have a slightly higher (i.e., less negative) EV than the bad beat jackpot.

I have no idea what PartyPoker's "management fee" is that they take out of the jackpot pool, if any. Maybe someone could find the info on their site. I bet it's less than what a live casino takes out, though.

[MicroBob]

party takes 10% out of each jackpot for their own greedy little hands.

You seem to be overlooking the actual chances of hitting the jackpot/lottery compared with the total prize.

It's not like the lottery would suddenly become +EV if they didn't take 40% out (or whatever) for the school-funding or 'management' fee or whatever.

They could take 0 out for 'management' and it could still be -EV.
For example...if the chances of hitting are 100-million to 1...and the amount prize is only $10-million...then it really doesn't matter whether there is a 'management' fee.



The opposite can hold true as well.
Lets take the PP BBJ.
Lets say the jackpot is at $2-million...and the chances of hitting are only 100,000-1.
Party could take out 60% as their own 'management' fee and it would still be +EV for the player.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

[ QUOTE ]


I sometimes play the BBJ tables when I believe the inferior play on the tables is +EV enough to make up for the extra $0.50 jp drop.
The jackpot is probably a little more than +EV when I play these tables.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is my philosophy on the BBJ tables too. When I log into Party, I look for the best normal tables, and get on wait lists or sit down. If I don't have at least four open, I then go to the BBJ tables, and find the absolute juiciest BBJ tables. Usually there's not more than 1 or 2 per level that make up for the extra rake bad play wise, but the ones that do are just spectacular donk gardens.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
For example...if the chances of hitting are 100-million to 1...and the amount prize is only $10-million...then it really doesn't matter whether there is a 'management' fee.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wouldn't be the case if they took 0% - the prize money total would equal cost of tickets if 0 was taken out (making it EV-neutral)

[MicroBob]

in my example (just making sure):

chances of hitting lottery - 100-million
amount to win - 10-million


Did you think I was using the same number perhaps and just didn't see the extra zero in there? Or are you saying something that is about 9-zillion miles over my head?

In the absense of a rake (fee) the lottery is not EV-neutral.
Selective players have a definite edge over chronic players.