10/20 river check-fold as aggressor HU

[Poldi]

Villain is 36/12.6/1 over 450 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, Button folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB

[Spartan1983]

I think HU, if the villain has any part of the board he's liable to bet when u check the river. There are a lot of ways he could have you beat on that board, but most of them I would expect a turn raise from the villain. So if you believe he has the A, lay it down.

[ghostface]

This is a terrible place for a bet/fold at 10/20 correct?

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible place for a bet/fold at 10/20 correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I surely wont be good 55% of the time I am called here. He wont call down with anything, especially because of the Ace.
I dont see any value in betting, the question is whether to check-fold or check-call. But seeing that he raised preflop from MP, A and K are on board and the only likely draw on the flop (heart-flush) hit on the turn, I dont think I´m good here often.
He probably wont bet 88-22.

[danzasmack]

Do you fold QQ here the same way?

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold QQ here the same way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting question. I´d say yes. The difference between the 2 hands is that I now beat TT and JJ (he may bet them on the river but I wouldnt count on it). Another factor though is that 2 Queens cant be in this hand, making an A or K even more likely seeing that he raised from MP. I think folding QQ here would be the correct move.

[Wynton]

I don't play 10/20, but I don't get this at all.

Couldn't villain play this the same way with 1010-QQ? If so, maybe he'd fold to a river bet when that A appeared?

Why not bet and fold to a raise?

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play 10/20, but I don't get this at all.

Couldn't villain play this the same way with 1010-QQ? If so, maybe he'd fold to a river bet when that A appeared?

Why not bet and fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ-TT get capped most of the time. They are also less likely than Ax or Kx because of hand combinations. And if he has them he still wont fold them all the time. It´s a possibility but I dont think it happens often enough.
Betting only makes sense if he will fold these hands, I surely cant bet for value. Even if he does fold them, I m not sure if he has those hands often enough to make a bet profitable.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

I surely wont be good 55% of the time I am called here. He wont call down with anything, especially because of the Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just wanted to point out that the 55% rule is for value betting in position. When OOP it is quite different, and betting can be correct even if we expect to be an underdog when called. That's not to say that your conclusion is incorrect, just that your justifications are off.

We are getting 9:1 putting 1 bet on the river (bet fold or check call) to try and see a showdown. Given that, betting can be correct despite being a losing proposition in and of itself. If we check-call, and only win 20% of the time we are better off calling than folding. However, if we bet and win 30% of the time when called betting is vastly superior to calling, despite being a -EV play in and of itself, because of pot size.

That said, I agree with the river c/f. It's more correct because villain is a 12% pfr - he's not calling the turn with unders to the K, so he's either got a PP, a K, or an A. On the river we are only ahead of PPs - 77 and 55 - and so the overwhelming majority of his hands are ahead of us.

Surf

[ArturiusX]

and surf, what if we had QQ?