A friends flopped set and my analysis

[bobdibble]

A friend sent me the following hand via email. I've included my response. (I'm mainly looking to see if my thought process is right here..)

Edit to include read: friend was confident that villain was uber tight on the river and wouldn't push with less than the 1st or second nuts.

Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Button (£60.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (SB) (£169.75 in chips)
Seat 3: BB (£102.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain (£136.25 in chips)
Seat 5: MP (£62.16 in chips)
Seat 6: CO (£119.75 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind £0.50
BB: posts big blind £1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Js Jc]
Villain: raises to £4
MP: folds
CO: folds
Button: folds
Hero: calls £3.50
BB: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Jh 4s 7s]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets £4
Hero: calls £4
----- TURN ----- [Jh 4s 7s][Kd]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets £6
Hero: raises to £12
Villain: calls £6
----- RIVER ----- [Jh 4s 7s Kd][7c]
Hero: bets £22
Villain: raises to £116.25 and is all-in
Hero: folds


My response:

Shouldn’t you have put in more action on the flop, say ¾ pot bet into him hopping to get into a raising war right there? Or a CR of the pot on the flop? If he folds, oh well… you can use that knowledge to push him off hands in the future. Plus, I assume you are playing your drawing hands aggressively, and in his eyes, this board offers the potential for a lot of draws, e.g. spade draw and oesd w/56. If he thinks you are on a draw, you might be able to get all in.

I don’t like the turn cr for a few reasons… 1) you are oop and there is a 2 flush on board. If he has something like AKs, he very well may check behind on the turn and his $4 bet on the flop gave him break even odds to hit on the river, and its +EV for him if he gets a little action from you on the end. 2) Don’t turn CR’s just scream “set?” If he has AK, he very well may be able to lay it down. 3) If he has something other than AA (e.g. KK/QQ, etc), lots of cards can come on the turn to freeze up your action… any spade, K, A, 3 or 8 is likely to slow him down significantly and greatly reduce your chances of getting a good chunk of his stack 4) You only min-raised on the turn.. ew.

Good fold on the river.

Note… I’m very possibly wrong in my thinking and analysis… so please point out if I have some flawed ideas here… thanks.

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What now?

[4_2_it]

Good fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] He actually folded Jacks full on that board? hero's hand cannot be correct.

[yvesaint]

lol i hope this post is a joke

[swolfe]

not a single correct action taken except maybe the preflop call.

[beavens]

why would you fold on the river???????

[kitaristi0]

I'd like to hear your friends justification for this river fold. I just see no way you can make this fold, unless he shows you his cards.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you fold on the river???????

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently because this guy wouldn't push with less than KK.

Other than that though, does the analysis of the rest of the hand make sense?

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you fold on the river???????

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently because this guy wouldn't push with less than KK.

Other than that though, does the analysis of the rest of the hand make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would lead the flop for 2/3 and probably potsized bet the turn and push to any raise