turn rope-a-dope

[molawn2mo]

PP 10/20

6 folds and I raise on the button w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. only the BB calls. BB is pretty much non-descript, say 28/14/1.3

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
he checks, bet, calls

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
he checks, I do likewise

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
be bets, I call

What say you and why?

I use this line frequently. I am getting to the point where I think I need to raise the river at certain times for value but have yet to solidify my thoughts on the criteria to use in order to make this play work. Any help for me here?

[einbert]

So you fear a checkraise from a better hand? But he is drawing here a lot, with an OESD or some such. Or he flopped one pair, in which case giving him a free card isn't good. If you get checkraised you will have to make a decision, but given this guy's numbers I'm inclined to call it down (especially because 76 seems like a possibility here).

I do this with pairs of aces sometimes, but not on this board. On this particular board A(76)K there are just tons of straight draws and five outers against you and I don't like giving a free card.

However, the pot is small so this line might be best. Some math will have to be done. My thoughts in the paragraph above are just my initial impression.

I will say that if you expect a bet often from many worse hands on the river, but if you expect him to fold five outers and gutshots here, it does seem pretty close. But I can't imagine a guy with those stats bluffing the river all that often.


I think it would also be useful for this decision to check his turn aggression factor (and that number in comparison with his flop aggression factor) and his WTSD. If his WTSD is higher than 40% I think you are giving up way too much by not betting here. Also his river aggression factor should influence the decision (i've found that generally people have AFs that are similar on the turn and river where the bets are big, and a different AF on the flop where the bets are small).

[DDBeast]

I like it because the flop bet and turn check is standard play for a steal, you gain respect for future steals when you show that you checked aces.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it because the flop bet and turn check is standard play for a steal, you gain respect for future steals when you show that you checked aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well from a metagame perspective this might very well cause people to start donkbetting us on the turn instead of checkraising in blindsteal situations, which isn't good. For another thing just what range of hands is this guy calling us down with? From his numbers I would speculate he is calling us down with a PP or pair on the flop a good percentage of the time. And we are losing value from hands that would call bets on the turn and river, in addition to hands that have outs but will fold to our bet (depending on how often they bluff the river, but this guy doesn't seem the type to really bluff _that_ often).

[W. Deranged]

I think this play is pretty close but personally I like a turn bet. I think this line certainly has merit but it's probably better served for use against a more aggressive/more tricky player who will sometimes check-raise the turn here with a weak A and bet the river with inferior hands.

[molawn2mo]

The turn check behind is not out fear of a check raise but, rather, an attempt to win 1 bet on the turn or river; this, while concurrently not exposing onesself into potentially having to put in 3 BB. Add that to the bluff catching potentiality of Villain's leading the river make this a pretty classic heads up only type play.

I think it is gerneally accepted (HEPFAP, I think) that the free card downside is quite minimal in this heads up scenario.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn check behind is not out fear of a check raise but, rather, an attempt to win 1 bet on the turn or river; this, while concurrently not exposing onesself into potentially having to put in 3 BB. Add that to the bluff catching potentiality of Villain's leading the river make this a pretty classic heads up only type play.

I think it is gerneally accepted (HEPFAP, I think) that the free card downside is quite minimal in this heads up scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

My main concern with the check is missed value, not giving a free card. With that said, there are definitely certain types of players against whom the way to maximize value is checking the turn.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is gerneally accepted (HEPFAP, I think) that the free card downside is quite minimal in this heads up scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the specific example in HEPFAP involves a paired board. It also assumes much better players on average than the average 10/20 party player. And the risk of giving a free card varies very much from board to board.

[molawn2mo]

I wish I were good enough to use those secondary stat reads. You make excellent points in that vein.