5/10 overpair

[rbenuck4]

party 5/10nl, 6 handed. Play has been a little reckless, but nothing too ridiculous. I've had a good run and made some good calls with marginal hands to take down some big pots so far. I have 1700, button has 1300, SB has 900.

Black Queens in UTG + 1. I raise to 40, button calls, as does SB.

Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

SB leads out for 130, I make it 390, button pushes all in for another 950ish, and its folded back to me.

[Yeti]

Fold.

[rbenuck4]

does your decision change at all if you have kings or aces instead? How bout if you have the heart in your hand for the backdoor possiblity?

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

Edit : some problems with copy paste

I did some quite rough math in my head and concluded that it's a fold but pretty darned close. I think this is a reasonable hand range for button:

Made hands: J9s, JJ, 99, 66 (11 ways)
Draws: AKh, AQh, ATh, KQh, KTh, QTh, T8h, 87h, 75h (9 ways)

Against made hands, I estimated calling has about 10% equity.
Against draws, I estimated calling has about 55% equity.
11 * .1 + 9 * .55 = 6.05 equity of the 20 hands

13.95 to 6.05 is about 2.3 to 1

pot 2090, 950 more to call, 2.2 to 1

So...we don't have quite sufficient odds given that hand range. However it's so damn close, plus his hand range could include AJ some of the time, or more Axh hands, or a bluff, and that math was super rough all estimates, that I would advocate calling.

Side note: rough math in your head takes like 30 seconds, while translating it to writing takes like 5-10 minutes. Stupid brain.

[rbenuck4]

Thanks for the math. I ended up folding, and while he didn't show his hand, he told me he had KQh. I went to two dimes and he is a 55% favorite there. While its an easy call knowing his hand with the pot odds, I think against his range of hands, it was a fold.

However, I do think you need to tweak your math. I think there is a much greater likelihood of him having a set here than a drawing hand, not just because of the number of possible combinations of hands. Preflop, he might not have called with some of the drawing hands you mentioned, Q10h, 108h, 75h, and also, postflop he might fold some of these hands too in this situation. I think I have to give him credit for a set here, and even if i'm wrong, the only hand i'm way ahead of is TPTK (which i highly doubt he has), and the drawing hands I'm either a small favorite or a slight underdog. All in all, i think its a fold.

[gol4pro]

Is this flop a standard reraise against most LAGs? Is calling the flop bet, hoping to raise most turns nitty?

[rbenuck4]

Too many draws on board to see a cheap turn in my opinion