Final Table 3 Allins in front of chip leader with AA

[maryfield48]

I'm not a regular in MTT, but this discussion came up on another forum, and I thought I'd post the scenario here. I know it could be looked at as just another "should you ever fold AA pre-flop?" post, but I am interested in the implications of the multiple all-ins and the varying equity in each pot, and also translating chip equity into $ equity. I hope others also find it interesting.

This is a live MTT, $150 buy in for TC10k, with another 10k available via a single $50 add-on available at the lunch break. Add-ons & 20% of buy-ins go to charity.

146 entries, total chips after add-ons ~2.5m. Prizes are:
1st - $6k
2nd - $4k
3rd - $2.5k
4th - $1.5k
5th - $1k

Hero doesn't remember the other amounts, but you can plug in some guesses if necessary.

Hero is at Final table with chip lead, 550k. This occurs early in the FT, Hero is CO.

UTG (75k) moves all-in, one fold, UTG+2 (400k & very tight player) pushes, one fold, MP2 (150k) and MP3 (250k) call.

Hero has AA. Hero has a very, very strong read on UTG2 as making that play only with AA or KK, and discounts AA pretty heavily based on his own holding, so puts him 90% on KK, 10% on AA.

Hero folded, and says that he doesn't want to play AA against so many hands, and with three left to act getting pretty good pot odds, when there is the possibility that 3 players can get knocked out with no risk to his chips.

I think he's wrong. There are 4 pots if he calls, and his equity in each is successively higher. I ran Pokerstove (with a slightly wider range for UTG2 than Hero) and assuming button & blinds fold, and got the following:

67,248,708,072 games 280.523 secs 239,726,183 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 13.9144 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { AA-77, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 10.4510 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 09.1749 % [ 00.08 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 09.1696 % [ 00.08 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 5: 57.2901 % [ 00.55 00.02 ] { AA }

The pot sizes and Hero's equity in each are:

Pot Equity cEV
450k 50% 225k
375k 57% 214k
225k 72% 162k
175k 84% 147k

So first I want to know if this approach is ok as far as it goes. Second I would love to see this analysis brought to bear on $ev. But that task is beyond me.

Any takers?

[illegit]

Worst fold ever.

[dogsballs]

[censored] fold.

All he has to do is beat 2nd stack (and AA vs his read of KK or whatever....duh....) and he's then basically close to freerolling for the other stacks.


edit: oh, and he has AA.