Folding turn in a big pot

Brom · #1 11-12-2005, 12:31 PM

The game is pretty loose passive preflop, but loose semi-aggressive postflop. There are many soft spots on the table, including a few of the people involved in this hand. CO is the most competent of all opponents and I read him for JT.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO raises, Hero folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Thoughts on: a) capping flop?
and b) folding turn?

Moozh · #2 11-12-2005, 12:45 PM

I don't like the flop cap and I don't like the turn fold.

If you're ahead on the flop, it's not by much. You're not gaining much if any equity by capping, but you do inflate the pot and make it harder to protect your hand. Just call the 3-bet.

On the turn, I was going to say check-raise, but I don't think it does anything for you. Thus, I like the donk bet. When he raises, you are getting 20:1 to call with an expectation of 24:1 with the callers behind you. This is a horrible fold.

At 24:1, you can call a 2 outer. You have 5 outs that may or may not be clean. I think they might be more clean than they look. CO could be raising on the draw on the flop, but otherwise, who do you think has a straight? No one did anything crazy on the turn. As long as no one has a straight, set, or flush draw, all of your outs should be clean. Even if there is a likely flush draw out there, you have the odds to draw to clean outs (all 3 aces and one 9). There's even a remote chance you might be ahead!

What was your thought process on the turn?

Brom · #3 11-12-2005, 01:00 PM

I capped the flop hoping to lose 2 or 3 of the stragglers. When the turn came I considered just checking and seeing what the action was to me before I acted. When I chose to bet out, I did it with the intention of folding if specific opponents raised me again, CO was one of them.

I figured the strength I showed by bet-capping the flop and leading the turn suggested at least two pair, so anyone who could raise me would have a set or straight (I'm not folding to one of the donkey's raises). And, like I said, I was 90% sure CO had JT, plus so many people saw the flop that JT and 56 become very likely.

Admittedly, I didn't put too much value in my hand improving to beat any two pair hand that might be out there, and I should have. Plus 9T could make this play too I guess.

#4 11-12-2005, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop cap and I don't like the turn fold.

If you're ahead on the flop, it's not by much. You're not gaining much if any equity by capping, but you do inflate the pot and make it harder to protect your hand. Just call the 3-bet.

On the turn, I was going to say check-raise, but I don't think it does anything for you. Thus, I like the donk bet. When he raises, you are getting 20:1 to call with an expectation of 24:1 with the callers behind you. This is a horrible fold.

At 24:1, you can call a 2 outer. You have 5 outs that may or may not be clean. I think they might be more clean than they look. CO could be raising on the draw on the flop, but otherwise, who do you think has a straight? No one did anything crazy on the turn. As long as no one has a straight, set, or flush draw, all of your outs should be clean. Even if there is a likely flush draw out there, you have the odds to draw to clean outs (all 3 aces and one 9). There's even a remote chance you might be ahead!

What was your thought process on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto. Nice analysis.

flopmonster · #5 11-12-2005, 01:40 PM

I would consider folding this on the flop given the action on the flop. Since you called on the flop I would definitely check the turn and fold if it was 2 bets back to me. Otherwise I am trying to find a cheap showdown for this hand.

bobhalford · #6 11-12-2005, 02:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider folding this on the flop given the action on the flop. Since you called on the flop I would definitely check the turn and fold if it was 2 bets back to me. Otherwise I am trying to find a cheap showdown for this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. With all that action on the flop, I would check the turn. Betting the turn is just asking for trouble. Hope to just have to pay one bet on the turn if you feel compelled to continue with the hand. Looks like a set/2 pair or a straight and you are drawing thin/dead.

TomBrooks · #7 11-12-2005, 02:45 PM

Thoughts on:

a) capping flop? == Bad for you bankroll

and b) folding turn? == Good for stopping the bleeding.

Further, I think betting the flop into such a large field with a very vulnerable hand was unwise, calling a bet two back to you on the flop if you had checked would have been somewhere between marginal and unwise (maybe only marginal because of your Ace kicker), and betting out on the turn was unwise.

TomBrooks · #8 11-12-2005, 02:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, When he raises, you are getting 20:1 to call with an expectation of 24:1 with the callers behind you. This is a horrible fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise a point I didn't think of before, but I think folding here is far from horrible.

With a made straight already possible, any 5 or J highly likely to make a straight, any T pretty likely to make straight and any 6 possibly making a straight, getting even 20:1 makes calling even one more bet on this turn look marginal at best to me.

If that's not enough, just to tip the scales further, anyone with a set has redraws to a full house or quads, and there's even a chance someone could make a flush on the river.

If you just magically dropped me into this hand at that point and said play from here, I'd probably call the bet; but I suspect that's because I'm not good enough to know better. I have a feeling you might need about 40:1 here to make investing even one more bet worth it.