Semi bluff on a scare card

Spicymoose · #1 11-10-2005, 01:17 PM

Villain is 24/14/2 after a substantial amount of hands. Does anyone raise this flop?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7.70 BB

JDalla · #2 11-10-2005, 01:20 PM

Probably not.

jba · #3 11-10-2005, 01:38 PM

I fold this preflop unless I think UTG is some kind of weakie.

and the way you played it I give up on the turn, I don't think this raise is profitable, too many decent aces that will all you down.

waffle · #4 11-10-2005, 01:40 PM

fold turn?

Roy6 · #5 11-10-2005, 01:41 PM

Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

Spicymoose · #6 11-10-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my thought, especially since he is a standard TAG. I think often 77-JJ try to lead into the 3-better in hopes that they don't have the ace and fold. KK also plays like this. All of these hands almost surely fold to my turn raise. Also somewhat often Ax folds (if he had indeed led the flop, which is rare IMO).

Roy6 · #7 11-10-2005, 01:51 PM

on a sidenote against an agressive player I'd seriously consider checking KK on the turn. Kind of WA/WB.

#8 11-10-2005, 03:38 PM

Fire your cards into the muck pre-flop and realize that you're an underdog against a 14%PFR's UTG range. Then stop spewing chips trying to win a small pot. You need about a 40% success rate for this bluff to show profit.

tansoku · #9 11-10-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my thought, especially since he is a standard TAG. I think often 77-JJ try to lead into the 3-better in hopes that they don't have the ace and fold. KK also plays like this. All of these hands almost surely fold to my turn raise. Also somewhat often Ax folds (if he had indeed led the flop, which is rare IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]
Taking a stab at hand ranges.

14% pfr is any broadway suited, A7s+, ATo+, pairs down to 77, maybe a bit lower.

No Ax hand is folding, no Qx hand is folding.
TAG caps pflop with JJ+.
So if you eliminate Ax, Qx, you are left with about 25% of his range.
You’re getting 2.85:1 on a fold and you need 3:1. Probably close enough given hand range errors and that an Ax might fold sometimes..

Against his likely fold range:
Board: 2d Ah Qd Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.8193 % 47.26% 12.56% { TT-77, KJs-KTs, JTs, KJo }
Hand 2: 40.1807 % 27.62% 12.56% { KhJh }

So it looks like you are behind to the range of hands he folds. So getting him to fold is great.

Against his full range:
Board: 2d Ah Qd Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.1601 % 74.90% 04.26% { 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 20.8399 % 16.58% 04.26% { KhJh }

jba · #10 11-10-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

14% pfr is any broadway suited, A7s+, ATo+, pairs down to 77, maybe a bit lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure this guy takes position into account and isn't raising 14% of his hands UTG.