A baseball pick

[mrbaseball]

In an effort to get some baseball handicapping discussion going I'll post another selection/analysis today.

I like Texas +1.5 runs at -110 over Houston. Basically another "it don't add up right" play. Texas is crap but Houston aint all that much better. But Houston does have a "name" pitcher going in Miller which skews the line to favor them. Miller is a better pitcher than Thompson but he hasn't done much on the road. He is only 1-5 on the road and the Astros are 1-7 on the road when he starts. Then again Texas is only 2-4 at home when Thompson starts.

Despite crappy record of 27-43 Texas has "been" in a lot of games with 14 one run losses meaning their record recieving 1.5 runs would jump up to 41-29 (.585). Houston has 11 one run wins which adjusts their 38-34 record to 27-45 (.375) when giving 1.5 runs. A .585 occurance should happen 70% of the time over a .375 occurance. Not bad if all you have to lay is -110.

Texas is much better at home (16-18) than their overall results and Houston is worse on the road (15-20) than their +.500 record. Plus in my mind Texas plays a much tougher AL west schedule compared to the weaker NL central. Both teams are currently on losing streaks and playing poorly (Tex 2-8 last 10 while Hou 3-7 last 10).

So the book is giving me basically even money and 1.5 runs on a home team which plays a tough schedule and hangs in there although often on the wrong side(1.5 runs make up for it!) against the crappy road team who is not competitve when giving up the 1.5 runs with a pitcher who has been throwing poorly on the road but has had a few good years in the past? And all I have to lay is -110? And I figure fair value to be in -180 to -230 range?

Yeah I'll take that bet [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[David Steele]

I notice a lot of suggestions where the 1.5 runs are taken rather then the straight bet.

1. Is it true you prefer these bets?
2. Are the lines quite often, signifigantly favorable for one kind of bet?
3. Is there some reason why they differ?

Also I wondered what you think of Bost-Phil, it seems like pretty good value based on Kim being not nearly as good of pitcher and the line is close to even. Which bet would you favor in this game?

Tx!!
D.

[mrbaseball]

1. Yes I often prefer runline bets and always with the runs but I do a lot of straight moneyline wagers too.

2. I think the runline gets out of line a little bit more but not always. I am of the "anything can happen" school and almost exclusively bet underdogs. Mainly because the favorites are almost always overbet offering no value. Underdogs plus the runs are higher percentage plays and will lower variance from straight plus money wagering.

3. Often when a line moves the runline will lag sometimes giving more opportunity. But a common tendancy with casual bettors is to give the runs and take the heavy favs. These plays get overbet and the same old cycle emerges that creates no value on the favs.

Bost vs Philly? Not playing that one today but if I was I'd take Philly -125. I still may though now that you have me looking at it again. Wolf just pitching too well to fade here. In fact he looks underpriced but Boston can be a tough fade too. I think Philly is a tad underpriced but not enough to make a strong play on.

[Wildbill]

As with any team at home getting the plus on the run line the price isn't going to be that far off from the ML just because the theory is the home team is going to have last at bats and also play to win by one run, but the visitor is not. Long term stats bear this out, but actually it does vary quite a bit depending on bullpen strength, run production, and perception of the starters so by all means it can be exploited for some small edges. In general though I tend to like betting home dogs just on the ML. Playing inferior teams just hoping they keep it close is not a great idea, not to mention while Miller or anyone else who you might think is a "name" pitcher may not have a big paper edge, its precisely these guys that can throw an extremely strong game on any given outing. Guys like his opponent might have one strong outing a year, the rest are the variety that either stink or just keep your side competitive. In other words Miller could win the game for the Astros singlehandedly, don't know if you can expect that from his opponent.

You make a great argument for one of my plays, an under on the Bos-Phil game. I think Boston on the whole is the much stronger team, but Wolf is in good form. Both teams are in a lower scoring phase compared to their averages, especially the Phils who haven't put up too many runs of late, well all year really. Its a rainy day in the Philly area as well, if they get the game off which isn't looking all that likely, its going to be played in either some rain or after rain which tends to favor the under. Looks like a fairly strong under to me, just hoping the game gets in 9 innings.

[Raken]

RE: Astros/Rangers

Texas is a bad team playing badly (2-14 in June)
Thomson is a bad pitcher pitching badly (1-4 last 5)

Houston is an average team playing average (9-7 in June)
Miller is a good pitcher pitching good (3-2 last 5)

Miller has gone 16-8 and 15-4 the last 2 years. After a 1-5 start to this season, he is 3-2 including a CG 2-hit effort against the Cubs on May 30. His k-bb ratio for the season is 2:1 (67-34). His k-bb the last 3 games is the same (15-8).

In contrast, Thomson has a 3:1 ratio for the season (52-18), but, his last 3 games only 5-3 and he didn't make it past the 3rd inning in the last game.

Even with +1.5, I wouldn't take a bad team that's sucking the gas pipe with a bad pitcher on the mound against an average team with hopes for a division title with a good pitcher on the mound.

However, I agree with your "anything can happen" viewpoint in baseball. If you can find a hundred plays like this a season and the percentages hold, sure, bet it. But this game does not begin to compare with your Cleveland pick yesterday. That was a nice one. I regret I didn't log on until after the game went off. I would have bet that one. This one, I wouldn't touch. Good luck.

Raken

[jerome baker]

" But a common tendancy with casual bettors is to give the runs and take the heavy favs. These plays get overbet and the same old cycle emerges that creates no value on the favs."

oops, thats what i have done on more than one occasion =(