Bad beat or poor play?

[archmagi]

I need some advice about a hand in an online free-roll multi-table NLHE tourney last night, 600 starters, 200 remaining. Blinds at 200/400
I was dealt 88 on the button with 7,000 chips, and there were 3 limpers and LP (12,000 chips) raises to 800, I cold call, blinds and 2 of the limpers fold. The pot is over 3,000 at this stage.
The flop comes QQ5 (rainbow, and suites are not important in this hand). EP checks, LP raises all in.
Now, we had been on the same table for a while, and I found his play was very predictable. Basically, he wouldn't have raised all-in if he had a Q, 55, or any big pair. I didn't put him on a 5 because of the pre-flop raise, so I put him on overcards, probably AK.
I felt very confident with my read (I'd say over 90% sure), so if he was on AK, he had 6 outs which could win him the pot (plus the backdoor straight possibility), and I win with all the other cards as he won't improve.
So I called his all-in raise.
[img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] my read was correct, he had AKo!!!
[img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img] the turn brought a K and the river was blank.
[img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img] So I busted out.

So, was this a bad beat or just poor play on my part?
Would you have called the raise? (provided you're over 90% sure you're ahead and only 6 cards can help your opponent)
Also, should I have re-raised pre-flop?

[Jabba]

Hi

According to my gross estimates you are 75% favorite (ignoring the backdoor straight, and the times he hits, but you hit the set). If you are 90% sure and beat/drawing very slim the last 10%, then your chances are around 2-1.

You did'nt tell what the av. size of the stacks is, but Im not fond of 'only' getting 2-1 going broke. I prefer to take the small stacks and leave the other to 'allin' each other. Because, even if you win, then LP is still very much alive, but if loose...

I think I would fold and wait for a better oppotunity, but again, Im not as confident in my reads...

yrs.

Jabba

[archmagi]

Thx Jabba,
You've got a good point with the avg. stack sizes; mine was above average at the time. Actually, I didn't have to take the risk, and I could have waited for a better opportunity.
I guess I should read the "you're broke you're done" section in the TPAP before I try another tourney.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

putting more than 10% of your stack in the pot with 88 preflop is no good. Fold. Reraising would be insane, unless you went all-in, what would you hope to accomplish.

You made a good read on the flop and took a chance. You were right but got busted anyway. These things happen, but they don't when you're not in the pot.

al

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your read was right, so your call was right. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

[DJA]

If indeed you are a 2:1 favorite, you will only hurt yourself throwing this one away. The question is are you really 90% sure he has overcards... that is pretty sure...

If you are truly satisfied with your read you should be making this call EVERY time.

Just My Thoughts,