Should I be betting these rivers?

wdcbooks · #1 11-07-2005, 02:26 AM

Button is a beautiful 43/0 over 225 hands
UTG is 58/20 over 125 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (22 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 22 BB

Should I be betting this river? There is no doubt that both players are morons, but they hadn't been insane postflop. If anything button had been strangely passive just calling down his flopped J high flush against my aggression.

I feel like there is some kind of psychological block here where I dread the sinking feeling that comes from being check raised. I just want the pot to be over with once it gets this big so I take the quickest route to that end.

If I do bet the river it seems clear that I call a raise. What do I do if it is three bet back to me? What hands do I put these opponents on and how often am I good?

josh1122 · #2 11-07-2005, 02:45 AM

Not betting this river makes baby jesus cry.

ArturiusX · #3 11-07-2005, 02:45 AM

Bizzare, but I'd say yes. Somebodys two pair just got counterfeited. They'll still call.

The Truth · #4 11-07-2005, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not betting this river makes baby jesus cry.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is true actually.

dealer_toe · #5 11-07-2005, 06:35 AM

So you're the 43/0 button? just kidding, I'm assuming you meant BB.

You have got to bet this river everysingle time. They obviously didn't like that river as much as you. If they c/r you, congrats to them, but you're missing value here way more than you get cost when you're c/r'd

#6 11-07-2005, 08:02 AM

Your Str8 is probably facing trips or two pair, having the turn be capped. Which means its likely your gonna cap the next one, which is a bigger payday for you.

at worst your spliting it and the site or casino gets a bigger rake, or beating the 9toK str8.

Guy McSucker · #7 11-07-2005, 08:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your Str8 is probably facing trips or two pair, having the turn be capped.

...

at worst your spliting it and the site or casino gets a bigger rake, or beating the 9toK str8.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's this thing called a full house...

Guy.

wdcbooks · #8 11-07-2005, 01:36 PM

Of course I was good here or I wouldn't be asking the question (KT and AK). I used up my time bank here and my thought process was that 30% of the time I was ahead of both players. 40% of the time I beat one and split with another and 30% of the time I was beat. The problem was that if my estimation was correct I gain 1/2 of a bet by betting and splitting, win two bets when ahead and I lose two bets at a minimum when I am beat.

I am not a chip spewer so I don't lose a lot of bets by running unsuccessful bluffs or trying to force someone off a hand. By not winning as many pots as others when I don't have the best hand I need to maximize every bet when I am ahead, so count this as a work in progress.

mex78753 · #9 11-07-2005, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I am not a chip spewer so I don't lose a lot of bets by running unsuccessful bluffs or trying to force someone off a hand. By not winning as many pots as others when I don't have the best hand I need to maximize every bet when I am ahead, so count this as a work in progress.

[/ QUOTE ]

That right there is a great point. If you're not willing to take people off of hands from time to time, you're going to need to get maximum value.

I think if one of the players had a boat they probably would have bet out on the river so a bet by you is mandatory.

If you bet and it's 3 bet back to you i think a fold is pretty safe.

wackjob · #10 11-07-2005, 02:09 PM

A must-bet, and if you are raised you must call. If it came back to you capped on the river by some chance, then a fold is a possibility, but I doubt I could do it.