5/10 6-max: Folding the nuts on the turn

AceHiStation · #1 11-05-2005, 07:55 PM

Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($1139.25)
MP ($3360.35)
CO ($1442)
Hero ($2538)
SB ($990)
BB ($1128.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
3 folds, Hero raises to $36, 1 fold, BB calls $26.

Flop: ($77) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($77) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $900, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $977

ahnuld · #2 11-05-2005, 07:57 PM

either or. Call isnt bad, but neither is a fold. Lowers your variance.

yvesaint · #3 11-05-2005, 08:01 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (2 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($2267.80)
Button ($1128.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button posts a blind of $6.
Hero raises to $24, Button (poster) calls $18.

Flop: ($48) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($48) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button raises to $72, Hero raises to $2243.8, Button calls $1032.55 (All-In).

River: ($3396.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $3396.35

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd 8d (straight, ace high).
Button has 3h Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $2267.80. Button wins $1128.55. 

similar hand, would you call this if you were Button

RikaKazak · #4 11-05-2005, 08:07 PM

standard fold, you see made str8 and flush draw HUGE % of the time.

Kirkrrr · #5 11-05-2005, 08:11 PM

He was going for a freeroll, it didn't happen. I think it was a good fold.

Kirk

#6 11-05-2005, 08:19 PM

People do a lot of strange things in low stakes games. At first I liked the fold. I think it's unlikely villian had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], since his $900 bet has hardly any positive expectation. With the current nuts and a strong draw to the nut flush, he doesn't stand to gain anything by betting this much. My guess would be he had a king (possibly KQ) and was afraid of the flush draw. But still, I think the pot's way too small to call when it seems like the best you can do is tie. I guess it's possible he might have had a hand like TT and is desperate, but I'm going to give him credit for being slightly more rational than that. Personally, I might call just out of curiosity. Since you didn't show any aggression post-flop, maybe your opponent is just that bad.

yvesaint · #7 11-05-2005, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess he has at least 4 outs to a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

he cant have a K and have outs to a boat at the same time

#8 11-05-2005, 08:26 PM

Yeah, I was mixing up the two posts as I was scrolling down. Oops.

HoldEmKillah · #9 11-05-2005, 08:34 PM

NLD

muzungu · #10 11-06-2005, 07:43 AM

Simple math problem.

Let's assume he always has a K.

You call and chop: you win $38.50.

You call, he hits, you pay off river: you lose $1090ish.

flush hits 9/44, so if he has the freeroll you lose (9/44)(1090) = lessee, about $220?

Soooo, if he has AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] about 1 time in 6, you lose. I think he will be freerolling a good deal more often than that. Plus, all other things being equal, low variance is your friend. So I fold.

-muz