1/2 nl live K7s nut flush draw

[meleader2]

stacks:

hero ~500$
villain covers hero:

hero position is MP holding K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
villain is button (he was actually in SB but the dealer thought the button was on him, really sucked when i realized that next hand i would've played this differently):

everyone limps to me, so i limp and flop:

flop (9$ after rake, 6 players):

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i check, villain bets 15$, i call, all others fold

turn (38$ after rake, 2 players):

[A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

i open for 30$, villain thinks, looks like he's going to call, then makes it 100$ total.

here's the move:

i can fold, call, or push. folding wouldn't be fun because he covers me and i can get his whole stack if i hit. i have 12 outs if he does NOT have the straight. villain is a good player, he has a set or two pair. not aces, not queens, i think deuces.

i later ran poker stove and my hand had 27% equity to win, while his was a favorite. however, the implied odds here tells me i should [fold, call, push]...?

[Allinlife]

time to fold

thin FE for a raise, no implied odds/ for call

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
time to fold

thin FE for a raise, no implied odds/ for call

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right about the thin FE. villain won't put it in if a club hits the river. the donk move is to push. smart move is to fold.

however, looking at the money in the pot:

it's 70$ to call into a 90$ pot. if he had made it 150$, it's a clear fold. this puts me in a tough spot..

[Mr. Curious]

What percent of the time will villian call on the river when the flush card hits and how big of a bet will that be.

Unless the answer to that question is that the villian will call a bet such that you will have sufficient implied odds to call the turn, then you must fold.

And most good players I know will not call a river bet of that size when the flush card hits.

[lautzutao]

Anybody like donking this flop here, or are you asking for trouble with this board?

If you're raised by villian on the flop it makes things a little easier for you and also kinda disguises your draw a little better methinks if you do hit your flush on the turn.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
What percent of the time will villian call on the river when the flush card hits and how big of a bet will that be.

Unless the answer to that question is that the villian will call a bet such that you will have sufficient implied odds to call the turn, then you must fold.

And most good players I know will not call a river bet of that size when the flush card hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

he was a good player. but i think i could value bet 100$ on the river, given previous hands i've had versus him/watched him

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody like donking this flop here, or are you asking for trouble with this board?

If you're raised by villian on the flop it makes things a little easier for you and also kinda disguises your draw a little better methinks if you do hit your flush on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but what do i do on the turn? if i bet out pot on flop and get raised to, say, 40/50$, and call, what kind of bet on the turn am i looking at if i check? by way of the table i'm making an educated guess of 20-25$ on the turn if i check it to him.

[lautzutao]

That's kinda why I was asking...you probably have to throw away your draw at that point when he bets big on the turn... But if you hit and check, do you think he's going to give you credit for the draw and check it through?

I'm new so I might be looking at this the wrong way...but what is he raising your flop bet with here if he's good and is limping preflop?

[meleader2]

that was exactly my thought process. i put him on 22...but, he had AQo.

strange.

[PokerFink]

I don't understand why you bet the turn. What are you trying to represent?