A low PP in a marginal situation

[crazygoose]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, <font color="red"> Hero (poster) raises </font> , 2 folds, <font color="red"> BB 3-bets</font> , MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6 BB

Villain is a 17/12 over 100+ hands. Combos of AA, QQ, JJ, TT that hold a diamond: 12 + combos of AK that hold Ad: 15 + combos of KQ that hold Qd: 18. Combos that don't hold any diamonds: 6*5 PPs: 24 + AK: 33 + KQ: 47. If I need a flush to win I am getting 1:6 on the turn (maybe 1:7 if he check calls when the diamonds hit but not likely). He will win 3/4 times when I don't hit my flush. I will win 1/4 * .6(number of times he doesnt have diamond) equals .15. I am getting 1:6.7. Therefore I think a fold is correct or very marginal. This includes the fact that villain won't bet that turn with AQ given I raised preflop. These calculations may be rough but I think they are good enough to justify a fold.

[flopmonster]

I don't like the raise P/F...I think postflop you played it fine

[sean c]

Hi Goose why did you call the flop bet and then fold the turn?

[Piiop]

If you're including KQ in his range, then you should also include AJ and 99 possibly 88.

[crazygoose]

I didn't think I was getting odds. Do You?