TPTK CRed on river...

blackaces13 · #1 10-31-2005, 06:11 PM

Paradise 1/2

First orbit on table, no reads but lobby had table running at 44% to the flop with about a $9 avg. pot.

PREFLOP: I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button
UTG limps, 2 folds, MP calls, 2 folds, I raise , SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

FLOP: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 7.5 SBs)
UTG and MP check, I bet , both call.

TURN: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 5 BBs)
UTG and MP check, I bet , both call.

RIVER: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 8 BBs)
UTG and MP check, I bet , UTG calls, MP Check-Raises! ...

Is the pot too big to fold? How often do you think I have the best hand here?

MrWookie47 · #2 10-31-2005, 06:14 PM

The pot is protected, the flush came in, the board paired, you're not closing the action, and the pot isn't all that big. I don't think you're good here nearly often enough w/o a solid maniac read.

milesdyson · #3 10-31-2005, 06:16 PM

my guess is that against unknowns calling this is a -0.89 BB move.

#4 10-31-2005, 06:29 PM

The only reason I might pay off in this spot is that you don't really have a good read on the table. But folding is still probably right for the reasons MrWook gave.

PokerSparky · #5 10-31-2005, 06:51 PM

I would make a crying call here getting 12:1 (most likely 13:1). I personally would need a read to fold here.

I see posters far more wise than I advocate a fold, so the fact that I call here (without a read) a very high percentage of the time is probably a leak. Oh well, not the only one I've got. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

#6 10-31-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is protected

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to bring this down to a more basic level, but what does Wook mean here?

Oh, and I like folding, though that's been well established.

PokerSparky · #7 10-31-2005, 06:56 PM

There's been a bet and a call, so the likelyhood that MP is check raising as a bluff is unlikely -- I think?

deception5 · #8 10-31-2005, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is protected

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to bring this down to a more basic level, but what does Wook mean here?

Oh, and I like folding, though that's been well established.

[/ QUOTE ]

A pot is considered protected when it's unlikely that you can win it by bluffing. The most basic instance of this is when you have one opponent all-in on the river. A bluff is clearly -EV because the all-in opponent cannot fold, so you have to at least beat one hand and there's no money in the side pot (and your bluff will be shown).

It's similar in this hand because both players have already put money in. If hero folds, the other player is very likely to call and the check/raiser must realize that a c/r isn't going to fold both players very often at all. Therefore he has a strong hand more often than if he c/r'd hero heads up in the same situation.

@bsolute_luck · #9 10-31-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is protected

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to bring this down to a more basic level, but what does Wook mean here?

Oh, and I like folding, though that's been well established.

[/ QUOTE ]

it means there is another person in the pot which makes it unlikely that the person is c/r on a solid bluff here. it is very unlikely that your TPTK is good here.

#10 10-31-2005, 07:05 PM

Very nice. Gratias.

Edit: so another way of putting this would be that in a protected pot the fold equity is very low?