Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud

Double Eagle · #1 10-31-2005, 04:26 PM

Some of you have seen this hand already, but I thought I would solicit some opinions because I'm still confused on how to play it.

This hand is from last Saturday's $650 Super on Stars. We are down to 25 players, with 10 earning seats to the Bahamas. We are playing hand for hand, with everyone other than the next player out getting $650 and with the eliminated player getting a whopping $15. As you can see there is a microstack at our table, and two other shorties with just a few more chips. I have a slightly above average stack, however there are several players bunched at around my level, so I am currently 12th in chips.

I had been at this table for only a couple of orbits and had raised the previous two hands. On the first hand, I raised from the CO with air and was reraised to 5600 by the BB. after a short credibility-think I folded. The next hand I opened from the hijack with AQ and won the blinds. Now I open for the third hand in a row and get re-raised by Bugstud. What range should I put him on and what should my action be?

Apologies for the format, the coverter seems to be down...

PokerStars Game #2925804866: Tournament #14028460, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2005/10/29 - 22:03:46 (ET)
Table '14028460 8' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: CHEKdezNUTS (28306 in chips)
Seat 2: rockythecat (31724 in chips)
Seat 3: ShuMoney (49940 in chips)
Seat 4: kingduey (2089 in chips)
Seat 5: ZeKGB (20245 in chips)
Seat 6: bugstud (28044 in chips)
Seat 7: Hold_emNL (34247 in chips)
Seat 8: GROGAN (17230 in chips)
Seat 9: superowl99 (26254 in chips)
CHEKdezNUTS: posts the ante 50
rockythecat: posts the ante 50
ShuMoney: posts the ante 50
kingduey: posts the ante 50
ZeKGB: posts the ante 50
bugstud: posts the ante 50
Hold_emNL: posts the ante 50
GROGAN: posts the ante 50
superowl99: posts the ante 50
superowl99: posts small blind 400
CHEKdezNUTS: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ZeKGB [Kd Ac]
rockythecat: folds
ShuMoney: folds
kingduey: folds
ZeKGB: raises 1600 to 2400
bugstud: raises 3600 to 6000
Hold_emNL: folds
GROGAN: folds
superowl99: folds
CHEKdezNUTS: folds
ZeKGB: ??????

beenben · #2 10-31-2005, 04:36 PM

He could literally have anything. After your aggression of raising three hands in a row, but not backing it up when you were re-raised makes it look like your trying to steal some chips on the 15/650 bubble. So he could be making a play off your play the last three hands and be raising with "air.". Or he could have a legit hand. It could be a smaller ace or any pair.

This is a good time to get chips to go for the Bahama's seat, but neither of you want to bust out before the mini stack. The scenario makes it hard to tell. However, you've got the best drawing hand, are ahead of any other ace, are only slightly behind to all pairs except AA and KK and I would think the chances are better that he's making a play and I would push all in.

rockythecat99 · #3 10-31-2005, 04:38 PM

I was on the table with you and at the time didn't know who you were. Bug could be restealing with anything here. I saw him reraise on the button with AJo and the check it down. I push too even though I know what happened. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Sam T. · #4 10-31-2005, 04:47 PM

Two choices:

1) Bug's your 2+2 pal, so you say to hell with winning a seat, and fold just to be nice.

2) You go to level three thinking. He knows there is a chance you've got air, and are trying to take advantage of the bubble (as you should), and is telling you to settle down. But you actually have a hand.

Where is that cow when you need her?

#5 10-31-2005, 04:57 PM

Legitimate reraising hands if he considered you tight would be AK, AA-JJ. Your recent activity probably extends Bugstud's reraising range to as wide as... AK-AJ, AA-88, especially since you backed down to the first reraise (this range only applies to players capable of making plays, not straightforward, "i play when i have the nuts" players). Also, he could very well be doing this with any two or with something like KQ. Given his reraise is to T6000, I think you have a lot of fold equity if you push. I don't think he'll call with 88-TT or AQ or AJ. Only hands he'll call with are AK, AA-JJ, (JJ and AK might even fold) and there are only 3 combos each of AA and KK, while there are 6 combos each of QQ and JJ and 9 combos of AK. I really only fear AA. If he has KK, I still have a 2 to 1 shot of getting 40k+ and cruise the rest of the way to the final ten. This is a push. By just calling, the hands that he'd fold to your push may catch up, or he'll see a flop with TT and realize that TT is best, since you only called his reraise. I don't feel like crunching out the numbers, but you should be a favorite against his reraising range. Let's say you're exactly 50/50 against his range. Do you think you can get down to final ten 50% of the time by folding AK here and working with the 18.8k you have left? I would say, no, unless you're much better than the field. I think if you double here, you'd be a virtual lock to make the final ten.

-mike

schwza · #6 10-31-2005, 05:04 PM

i'm not a big satellite guy, but i don't see how you wouldn't push here. incidentally, does bugstud know your sn?

Double Eagle · #7 10-31-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not a big satellite guy, but i don't see how you wouldn't push here. incidentally, does bugstud know your sn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes he does know me.

SossMan · #8 10-31-2005, 05:45 PM

I think his range is a little tighter than 'any 2' simply because he's smart enough to realize that you are smart enough to know that you are opening yourself up to a reraise here given your recent history. If an unknown raised you there, then I think it would be an easy push, but we know that Bug knows that we look pretty light, so his (smallish) raise probably means something. Still, since he will have a tough time calling in this spot w/ 99-JJ, AK and taking a flip vs. QQ/JJ at this stage isn't the worst thing in the world, and the combos of AA/KK are diminished given your hand, I think I still jam there.

bugstud · #9 10-31-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think his range is a little tighter than 'any 2' simply because he's smart enough to realize that you are smart enough to know that you are opening yourself up to a reraise here given your recent history. If an unknown raised you there, then I think it would be an easy push, but we know that Bug knows that we look pretty light, so his (smallish) raise probably means something. Still, since he will have a tough time calling in this spot w/ 99-JJ, AK and taking a flip vs. QQ/JJ at this stage isn't the worst thing in the world, and the combos of AA/KK are diminished given your hand, I think I still jam there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I am folding JJ, puking QQ. fwiw.

Now my reraising range...that's an interesting one. Any 2 is probably the right word but not the right way to weight it.

Colson had a similar hand against me earlier with AK and maybe he can post that as well.

SossMan · #10 10-31-2005, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I am folding JJ, puking QQ. fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

this alone is enough to push.

[ QUOTE ]
Now my reraising range...that's an interesting one. Any 2 is probably the right word but not the right way to weight it.

[/ QUOTE ]

care to elaborate.

Also, I want to be clear on my reasoning:

DE has raised 3 hands in a row.
He was pushed off one and stole the other.
Bug has to know that DE knows that he's opening himself up to a reraise (if not from Bug then from one of the 4 or 5 remaining opponents)
Yet, Bug still reraises, knowing that DE likely has what would be considered a legit raising hand from that spot. Bug also knows that, by raising to 6k, he is allowing DE to put in the last FE raise if he wishes.

Therefore, Bug probably has a bit more than 'any 2'. I would put his range at monster / trash. Middle pairs and strongish aces and suited broadway probably don't make that sized reraise (call/push/fold)

I think that it's a hand like 53s or AA-JJ / AK.