Top 2 pair, on 4 straight board, river decisions

ReadyEddie · #1 10-31-2005, 01:31 PM

Reads:
SB is 39/3.6/1. over 82 hands. River AF= 2.0 Won @ SD = 44
BB is unknown

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 checks, MP3 calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (11.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

So river plan? considering all opponent options:
checked to you? maybe a c/r?
bet, call, you?
check, bet, you?

#2 10-31-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Reads:
SB is 39/3.6/1. over 82 hands. River AF= 2.0 Won @ SD = 44
BB is unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that I almost want to check behind, assuming they check to me. Im still calling at least one bet. I'd put SB on a flush draw, or some lame attempt to steal with a pair of queens. Given his stats, I would guess he is leaking money at a furious rate so it almost makes sense to fire at him, but I am guessing you are never getting a K to fold here.

Having said that, I would think the proper line is:

bet/fold if checked to me, call if bet to me.

#3 10-31-2005, 01:47 PM

If I am checked to I would bet. Most players lead out on the river if they complete their straight, afraid it will check through.

GTSamIAm · #4 10-31-2005, 01:50 PM

If SB bets and BB calls, I'd consider folding.

#5 10-31-2005, 01:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If SB bets and BB calls, I'd consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I would fold in this case. BB calling leads me to believe that he does not have the straight. Most players at 2-4 that make the nuts on the end will raise and not go for overcalls, because they recognize that their hand is unbeatable. SB's stats are fishy enough that he could be betting on the end with a worse 2 pair, or a desperate bluff 1/13 times. I'm calling here unless I get check raised or it's two bets to me.

EDIT: I'm insterested in the results as well.

#6 10-31-2005, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm insterested in the results as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, without knowing the final. Was it checked or bet to you?

ReadyEddie · #7 10-31-2005, 03:49 PM

The river went:
check, bet, me?

the reason i posted was because I wasnt sure if it's right to bet/fold if checked to me.

#8 10-31-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The river went:
check, bet, me?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wish the SB bet the river, but the BB's bet could also mean a smaller two pair in addition to the straight...

EDIT: I'd call this bet.