Counterfeited 2pair on the river but big pot, should I call?(1/2 full)

lautzutao · #1 10-31-2005, 11:57 AM

Villian is probably the best player at the table. Very solid postflop. Pot's pretty big, but I'm fairly sure I'm beat. Does it matter?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, Hero calls.

River: (13.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero ???

Should I have donked this river? Comments on all streets appreciated as well.

#2 10-31-2005, 12:07 PM

If our villain is that solid postflop, he'g gotta have us figured for an Ace or a flush draw, given that we bet the flop. When he raises the turn, I think I'd just call with a plan to call down hoping to see AK, AQ. That still might be the best plan but the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] makes it tempting to donk the river. If he raises the stop n go, I think I could fold.

Meech · #3 10-31-2005, 12:10 PM

We lose to AK/AQ now.

I'm not sure I'd 3bet that turn.

deception5 · #4 10-31-2005, 12:12 PM

Yeah I think you are toast here against a solid opponent too often to make this call.

Edit: The turn 3-bet looks fine.

sean c · #5 10-31-2005, 12:12 PM

i wouldn't call.

Koss · #6 10-31-2005, 12:16 PM

Not sure how I would have played that. I'm not too thrilled with the turn 3-bet. If he's as solid as you say he is, when he just calls the flop with 2 active players behind him on a somewhat drawy board he's either got a monster and is setting you up, or he doesn't have much and is going to see one more before he shuts it down. His turn raise should have eliminated all doubt. You are in trouble. I'll probably get flamed for saying this but I'm expecting to see AA/JJ/99 about 90% of the time. With that line I think folding the river becomes easier, because now the list of hands that you beat that raise you on the turn are pretty much 0. As it is I think you've put yourself in a position where you have to call the river.

bozlax · #7 10-31-2005, 12:17 PM

If Villan's that good, I think you have to check-fold the river after the turn cap, since only one of the cards in your hand plays, now. You're beat by AA/JJ/99/77/AK/AQ/AJs/ATs/A9s/A8s and only ahead of KK/QQ/TT (assuming a normal-to-aggressive preflop raising range).

bozlax · #8 10-31-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As it is I think you've put yourself in a position where you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you worried about metagame, or do you think Hero is good here 1 time in 15?

MrWookie47 · #9 10-31-2005, 12:20 PM

I'm with you boz, although I'll nitpick and say that hero chops with A8s

Koss · #10 10-31-2005, 12:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As it is I think you've put yourself in a position where you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you worried about metagame, or do you think Hero is good here 1 time in 15?

[/ QUOTE ]

Image. 3-betting the turn then folding to one bet on the river in a big pot will make you a target. I don't like being taken out of control, although this can work to your advantage if you are comfortable trying to trap with weaker hands.