party 750k hand

I have 1280 chips in BB, blinds 25/50. average around 1500
I am dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG limps (1150), CO limps (2100) SB folds. I check. PF pot: T175

flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, UTG bets 50, CO raises to 350.

Hero?

[EverettKings]

CO is very, very likely to have a solid Q here, probably KQ and usually without the Kc. There's also a lesser chance of a small set. So, you have 3+2+9=14 outs most of the time and 9 outs occasionally. If you think he has any capacity to fold a queen, I move in. Without a read, I assume that he can get away from KQ/QJ ish and push. You just have so many freakin' outs and your stack is pretty perfect for this semibluff.

Everett

[betgo]

Your hand is very strong with pair, overcard, and nut flush draw. You are a little bit ahead of top pair. You have about 32% against a flush and 29% against a set.

If you push, you have some pot odds and some folding equity. I would probably push, but is fairly close.

You are not getting the odds to draw to a flush by flat calling.

[jstoc]

Hmm, I was leaning towards mucking the hand. If the CO has top pair with a club you go from being a slight favorite to a underdog, and I think that the times that the CO folds to your all-in raise isn't enough for it to be an effective semibluff. Not to mention there is the possibility of a set, small but not to be ignored. If you read the Co as relatively tight, a push might be in order, but, without a read, I'd probably fold although I might push if I was in a gambling mood.

[DDBeast]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read, I assume that he can get away from KQ/QJ ish and push. You just have so many freakin' outs and your stack is pretty perfect for this semibluff.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that the average player is going to fold KQ/QJ there, however your hand is still too good, so I'd probably push.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Without a read, I assume that he can get away from KQ/QJ ish and push. You just have so many freakin' outs and your stack is pretty perfect for this semibluff.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that the average player is going to fold KQ/QJ there, however your hand is still too good, so I'd probably push.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the party 750k? Are you serious?

Do you call with KQ/QJ there?

I did an analysis almost exactly like everett's during the hand. Because of the cutoff's large overbet, i thought it highly unlikely he had a set. I also put him on a hand like KQ and QJ.

I decided to push, and thought the most likely outcome was that I would take the pot uncontested. CO called with KQ, and I lost. I was quite surprised at this call in the party 750k. After he was checkraised all-in, to call here seems very donkish. A nut-flush draw is basically the only hand that would check raise all in that he could beat. I monitored the guy for awhile and he was out within an hour.

[DDBeast]

No I wouldn't call but if it's early when the fishies are around they're going to call instantly.

[whynot?]

think its early to push it all in with a marginal hand. to me his raise equates to not wanting to be called/raised. i read that as aq with no clubs, kq no clubs, or a small flush. in the first case you have 11 outs, second 14 and third 7. cant run the numbers but i suspect this is not a positive move. correspondingly if im him im reading your move as not wanting to get called either (if you had the nut flush you wouldnt push youd call). id expected to see a draw with a piece when you turned over, maybe aq or kq or a queen with a club, or maybe a small flush. im only losing to two of those hands

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to push, and thought the most likely outcome was that I would take the pot uncontested. CO called with KQ, and I lost. I was quite surprised at this call in the party 750k. After he was checkraised all-in, to call here seems very donkish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have played it the same way, and it was a donkish call on his part assuming he wasn't holding the K. That's poker.

For me, the fact that I'm slightly below average is also a factor in making the decision to push: if I've doubled up early and have built a solid chipstack i might pass on this assuming I don't want to take the worst side of a coinflip here, but below average I'm looking to make a more agressive play. But i fall in the school of thought of maximizing $$$/hour over ROI.