I'm Lost - A few different options ...

adamstewart · #1 10-30-2005, 02:45 PM

MP is 62/24/1.1 with blind steal attempt of 50%.

What's your line for the flop and/or turn? (Btw, the river bet was a 'hail marry' bluff).

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

#2 10-30-2005, 02:52 PM

How about check-raising the turn?

jba · #3 10-30-2005, 02:53 PM

I usually c/r the flop and lead the turn in this kind of spot.

I also would have consider a turn c/r after you just called the flop. I think both of these lines give you a better chance of getting villain to fold than the donk bets, though those are a bit cheaper.

I think the river bet in your line is bad. I think his call on the turn lets you know that he wants to go to showdown, and I really doubt the ace is going to change that - in fact I think after his call on the turn and the ace hitting the river, he almost always has a pair.

Surfbullet · #4 10-30-2005, 03:36 PM

If I wanted to take an aggressive line I'd probably c/r the turn...I'm not worried about a free card since i'm almost always behind, and have tons of outs anyway. I don't think a turn donk will fold many better hands since KQ has a gutshot and A/AQ isn't folding...the rest of the reasonable raising hands have either paired up or made a semi-strong draw.

I'm happy to just c-c and fold the river UI since I think his likely range of hands will have hit this board hard enough that I'm not folding him on hte turn with a c/r or donk.

Surf

Surfbullet · #5 10-30-2005, 03:38 PM

Hey jba,

What hand range do you put villain on by the flop? How often do you expect to fold a better hand with a flop c/r? What's the likelihood of being 3bet?

IMO this is a poor flop to go for a c/r. Sure we've got outs, but pretty much everything he holds is going to be A-hi, a pair, or a semi-strong draw.

Surf

jba · #6 10-30-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey jba,

What hand range do you put villain on by the flop? How often do you expect to fold a better hand with a flop c/r? What's the likelihood of being 3bet?

IMO this is a poor flop to go for a c/r. Sure we've got outs, but pretty much everything he holds is going to be A-hi, a pair, or a semi-strong draw.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time and A-high hands should make up < 20% of his range. I do think we have more fold equity than you do. also we are not going to have the credibility issues that we would on a low raggedy or paired flop -- for the same reasons you are scared of the flop.

what semi strong draws are out there? mostly gutshots, no?

(you very well may be right I might have switched to devils advocate halfway through this post)

adamstewart · #7 10-30-2005, 04:45 PM

THe problem I see with check-calling all the way to the river is that we are drawing marginally thin on pot odds - if it weren't for the club on the turn, I wouldn't have the odds to even call my draw.

On the other hand, this hand seems to good to fold. It has a pretty good equity on the flop (and the turn) especially in light of a 50% stealer.

Therefore, it is my opinion that I must take aggression at some point in order to gain some fold equity. The fold equity in conjunction with the drawing odds make this a profitable hand.

The question is: where and how do I take a stab at this pot?

Surfbullet · #8 10-30-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
THe problem I see with check-calling all the way to the river is that we are drawing marginally thin on pot odds - if it weren't for the club on the turn, I wouldn't have the odds to even call my draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'd probably c/f the turn without the club and hope for a free card.

[ QUOTE ]

Therefore, it is my opinion that I must take aggression at some point in order to gain some fold equity. The fold equity in conjunction with the drawing odds make this a profitable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, thank you, I'm well aware of the concept you are describing. A prominent poker author even gave it a fancy name: the semi-bluff.

How many hands is villain's read over? Because with a 24% pfr I'd be surprised if he was opening 50% of his hands on the CO.

Okay so we assume he's really raising 50% of his hands. That doesn't really help us much on this board! It just means that more of his hands could have hit the board in some way to warrant him continuing.

Surf

Surfbullet · #9 10-30-2005, 05:20 PM

Hey jba,

On average one opponent will flop a pair 33% of the time. This is a misleading statistic however, since we aren't playing the average of all flops, we're playing this specific flop. Does he make a pair 33% of the time on a 222 board? Certainly not! Likewise, he's much more likely to make a pair or a draw on a J98 board.

Some hand ranges:
Ax+
K5+
Q5+
J6+
T8, T9, T7s, T6s
connectors down to 45
1gappers down to 79
any PP.

That's about 45.7% of his possible holdings. He's a 50% to steal but we'd expect a full 50% from the btn and sligthly less from the CO (assuming the sample size is sufficient anyway).

So, an J98 board...

-A2-A6 don't have a pair or draw, but may call anyway (it's notoriously hard to get these guys off of A-hi)
-A7 has a gutshot + overcard (he's calling)
-A8/9/J have pairs
-AT has the same OESD
-AQ/AK aren't folding.

-K4-K6 will probably fold.
-K7/KT have draws, he'll continue
-K8/9/J made a pair
-KQ has overcards+gutshot, not folding.

-Q5-6 will probably fold.
-Q7/QT have a draw+over
-Q8/9/J made a pair

-any J hand has a pair.

-any T hand has an OESD, and probably a pair too
-any 9 hand has a pair
-any 8 hand has a pair

-67 has a crappy oesd, may still call

-connectors / 1gappers under the board will probably fold.

-any PP is ahead of us, and wont fold.

Keep in mind our T outs are no good against any hand with a 7 or a Q, and our 6 outs are sketchy at best given the likelihood he's made a pair.

So, we're left with the unpleasant reality that most of his hand range is strong enough for him to continue. The key ingredient to the semi-bluff being profitable is that it has a significant chance to fold out a better hand. Here we have so few better hands folding that we are spewing chips with a weak draw.

Another interesting thing to note about this board:

Our hand has 33% hot/cold equity vs a 20% raiser.
Our hand has 37% hot/cold equity vs a 45% raiser. That's a very small difference considering how much weaker his average raising hand is - and it's because this board is SO BAD for FE.

Surf

ddubois · #10 10-30-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
He might, statistically, only flop a pair 33% of the time on a random board, but on a 89J board I think that percentage would be much higher. The top 50% of hands (according to pokerstove, roughly 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o) includes pretty much every pair, every ace, every two cards 8 or higher. I'm not going to take the time to count all the combos, but I'd wager it's more than 33%.