How much did the delivery guy cost me?

WillMagic · #1 10-28-2005, 08:17 PM

Party 15/30. Very good table. Loose/passive for the most part. Other than that no specific reads.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 folds, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11.33 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls.

And the doorbell rings. Civilization IV is here! Awesome! Let me just fire out this value bet and I'll go pick it up...

River: (14.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, and then leaves to pick up Civ IV, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero times out and folds.

Final Pot: 17.33 BB

So how much did the delivery guy cost me? Ballpark dollar figure, if you will. My guesstimate is $40. If you feel like doing more rigorous analysis than do so. And, if you think the delivery guy saved me money, tell me so and I'll tip him next time he comes.

Will

shant · #2 10-28-2005, 08:22 PM

Seems kinda silly to leave the computer before the hand is over unless your river plan was to bet/fold anyway.

WillMagic · #3 10-28-2005, 08:25 PM

Clearly you have never played a Civilization game.

Will

shant · #4 10-28-2005, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly you have never played a Civilization game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Haha, can't say I have.

silkyslim · #5 10-28-2005, 08:31 PM

the delivery guy didnt cost you anything, your bad judgement may have cost you the pot.

WillMagic · #6 10-28-2005, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the delivery guy didnt cost you anything, your bad judgement may have cost you the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will

private joker · #7 10-28-2005, 08:40 PM

He saved you $30. I can't imagine MP would checkraise this river with one pair.

MCS · #8 10-28-2005, 08:47 PM

My intuitive guess is that you had a 2% chance to win. So calling is worth about .02*20 = .4BB. So he saved you .6BB, or around $18.

Do you really think you're good 5% of the time here?

I'm also discounting metagame, which has to be wrong.

#9 10-28-2005, 09:10 PM

How's the game? I never really got that into Civ 3 myself.

I think you are pretty much toast on this river, if villians is prone to bluff raising or overvaluing his hands then leaving the computer is probably a bad idea, but I don't think this cost you too much.

WillMagic · #10 10-28-2005, 09:16 PM

I posted this like right after it happened, so I've yet to play the game. I'll report back later.

Will