River Decision... Blind Steal

dacubbie · #1 10-28-2005, 06:56 PM

Alright, I realize that it's not a hand to steal with. My table image is super good. Been showing down great hands left and right. SB is fairly loose and slightly aggro.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2d, Kc.
1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Jd, 2c, 5s (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3c (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 5c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

TheMetetron · #2 10-28-2005, 07:07 PM

Here's what I said via AIM, cliff's note version. I realize, I am thinking about this for 10/20, but whatever. My knowledge of 3/6 isnt that great anymore so there's not much else I can do.

1) What hand is he betting here twice and checking the river?

TT-66, 44, missed overs.

2) Which of these hands is he calling your river bet with?

TT-66, 44, and possibly Ax. Not if he's a good player though. He should realize on this board, you aren't flat calling twice without a made hand that wants to see showdown or perhaps a strong ace high (that won't bet the river).

If he's smart, he's not calling with any hand that you beat. That is, I see no value here.

If he's not smart, and will call with ace high and other such weird holdings, go for it.

Generally, I like taking the free showdown in my games.

dacubbie · #3 10-28-2005, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what I said via AIM, cliff's note version. I realize, I am thinking about this for 10/20, but whatever. My knowledge of 3/6 isnt that great anymore so there's not much else I can do.

1) What hand is he betting here twice and checking the river?

TT-66, 44, missed overs.

2) Which of these hands is he calling your river bet with?

TT-66, 44, and possibly Ax. Not if he's a good player though. He should realize on this board, you aren't flat calling twice without a made hand that wants to see showdown or perhaps a strong ace high (that won't bet the river).

If he's smart, he's not calling with any hand that you beat. That is, I see no value here.

If he's not smart, and will call with ace high and other such weird holdings, go for it.

Generally, I like taking the free showdown in my games.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

kross · #4 10-28-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, I realize that it's not a hand to steal with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Kx is a fine hand to steal with.

I check behind on the river.

-- Kevin

mperich · #5 10-28-2005, 07:33 PM

I bet this river every time against a loose and slightly aggro opponent in the 10/20. I dont really think its very close in a blind steal situation.

[ QUOTE ]
1) What hand is he betting here twice and checking the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand he 3bet with preflop that missed. Also some pairs of course.

[ QUOTE ]
2) Which of these hands is he calling your river bet with?

TT-66, 44, and possibly Ax. Not if he's a good player though. He should realize on this board, you aren't flat calling twice without a made hand that wants to see showdown or perhaps a strong ace high (that won't bet the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your range of calling hands here is correct except instead of POSSIBLY A hi, it should be FOR SURE. Also, I think after he checks the river his ace hi hands greatly outweigh his pair hands.

You say "not if he's a good player". We arent usually playing good players here. Even good (maybe decent) players call down sometimes with A hi; its 1 bet and the pot is decently large. Also, hero didnt put in a raise anywhere so he is unlikely to have a jack.

So I agree with your analysis that if he is good a check is best; but if he is bad (which he probably is) a bet is better.

-Mike

TheMetetron · #6 10-28-2005, 07:41 PM

To me, hero's hand is pretty obvious if I'm villian.

I think you are correct in that I am over-estimating the villian's ability here.

Too loose and too aggro probably indicates bad. Therefore, a bet may be correct here.

TheMetetron · #7 10-28-2005, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alright, I realize that it's not a hand to steal with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Kx is a fine hand to steal with.

I check behind on the river.

-- Kevin

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't steal K2o in a loose game.

kross · #8 10-28-2005, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't steal K2o in a loose game.

[/ QUOTE ]
The read was "SB is fairly loose", not "SB will defend his small blind with any two cards". Of course he didn't give a read on the BB. I assumed the OP thought the BB was tight enough that stealing with marginal hands would be profitable. I could be wrong.

-- Kevin