Live 20/40 - "Tough" spot with TPTK

[gh9801]

Hollywood Park 20/40

UTG is solid TAG, who is uncharacteristicly chatty during this hand
BB is donk
Hero is button with tight/aggro image.

UTG raises, Hero threebets on button with AcKc, BB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, BB calls

Flop K83 two hearts

BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG threebets, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls

Turn 6x

BB checks, UTG leads. Hero?

Calling down and seeing a showdown seems obvious, but from his point of view I have AA/KK/AK, and from my point of view he only has AA/KK/AK, more likely AA maybe KK... BB seems to have a flush draw but me raising on the turn won't knock him out, and UTG probably knows that. By default I'm not raising here with AK or AA ever.

So while calling down seems the most obvious (and what I did in this situation), what do you guys think of...

1. folding?
2. raising/fold to threebet
3. calling turn, folding river

Or is just calling down 100% right every time?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you guys think of...

1. folding?
2. raising/fold to threebet
3. calling turn, folding river

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck. I don't like any of these ideas.

Anyway, here are some combos for main Villain:

AA = 3 combos
AK = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo

I don't think we should be thinking about folding unless a flush card hits on the river and BB wakes up.

And while I do think we're probably in trouble if we raise the turn and get 3-bet, I don't want to spend all that money just to decide I don't quite have the odds to draw against what could be my two outs against AA.

[gh9801]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do you guys think of...

1. folding?
2. raising/fold to threebet
3. calling turn, folding river

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck. I don't like any of these ideas.

Anyway, here are some combos for main Villain:

AA = 3 combos
AK = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo

I don't think we should be thinking about folding unless a flush card hits on the river and BB wakes up.

And while I do think we're probably in trouble if we raise the turn and get 3-bet, I don't want to spend all that money just to decide I don't quite have the odds to draw against what could be my two outs against AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is huge but I'm pretty confident that after I show so much strength preflop/flop, and he still leads the turn, that I'm most likely beat. If he has AK he probably won't lead unless he wnats me to raise to try to knock out BB, but we both know that won't happen. So I see him leading with only AA or KK here on the turn, that is my dilemma.

What's your thoughts against folding river UI? Big pot fold, that's it? I just don't think UTG would value bet anything worse than AA here on a blank river, he'd probabyl check/call with AK.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is huge but I'm pretty confident that after I show so much strength preflop/flop, and he still leads the turn, that I'm most likely beat. If he has AK he probably won't lead unless he wnats me to raise to try to knock out BB, but we both know that won't happen. So I see him leading with only AA or KK here on the turn, that is my dilemma.

What's your thoughts against folding river UI? Big pot fold, that's it? I just don't think UTG would value bet anything worse than AA here on a blank river, he'd probabyl check/call with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're that confident a turn lead means you're beat, I guess you should just fold right then. You don't have the odds to chase.

Still, you do have 1-2 outs against AA (depending on what BB holds and whether the king of flush is in the deck or on the board), so if there's also some reasonable chance (like 15 percent or so) you're currently tied, then I don't think you should fold. But then after the turn, if a river lead on a blank means you're definitely beat, then I guess you could fold then. And in fact if a river bet means you're definitely toast, then you can call on the turn a little more liberally, since you don't have to pay off on the river unimproved.

I usually don't trust my reads this much. Calling down, like you did, seems fine to me.

[gh9801]

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The pot is huge but I'm pretty confident that after I show so much strength preflop/flop, and he still leads the turn, that I'm most likely beat. If he has AK he probably won't lead unless he wnats me to raise to try to knock out BB, but we both know that won't happen. So I see him leading with only AA or KK here on the turn, that is my dilemma.

What's your thoughts against folding river UI? Big pot fold, that's it? I just don't think UTG would value bet anything worse than AA here on a blank river, he'd probabyl check/call with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're that confident a turn lead means you're beat, I guess you should just fold right then. You don't have the odds to chase.

Still, you do have 1-2 outs against AA (depending on what BB holds and whether the king of flush is in the deck or on the board), so if there's also some reasonable chance (like 15 percent or so) you're currently tied, then I don't think you should fold. But then after the turn, if a river lead on a blank means you're definitely beat, then I guess you could fold then. And in fact if a river bet means you're definitely toast, then you can call on the turn a little more liberally, since you don't have to pay off on the river unimproved.

I usually don't trust my reads this much. Calling down, like you did, seems fine to me.

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I guess you're right, this situation may just be read dependent.

[MCS]

So let's assume UTG has AA/AK/KK with 100% certainty.

Let's also assume he would play any of those three hands like this. Then he has a 30% chance of AA, 60% of AK, and 10% of KK.

Let's finally assume BB has a flush draw and that he will call the turn.

AA: 1 or 2 outs to win (remember we're assuming BB has flush draw)
AK: split if flush doesn't hit
KK: no outs

So, if we temporarily pretend we are unlucky and won't hit the K, we're dead 40% of the time. The other 60% we have about 75% of the deck to split.

Equity is around (.40)(0) + (.75)(.60)(.50) = .225 which is plenty considering the pot size. You'll put in at most 2BB on the turn and river and the pot is 15BB just after the turn. So call down all the way assuming no flush hits.

The thing that worries me is that I think AA and KK may be more likely than this because UTG may back off with AK at some point.

[gh9801]

[ QUOTE ]
So let's assume UTG has AA/AK/KK with 100% certainty.

Let's also assume he would play any of those three hands like this. Then he has a 30% chance of AA, 60% of AK, and 10% of KK.

Let's finally assume BB has a flush draw and that he will call the turn.

AA: 1 or 2 outs to win (remember we're assuming BB has flush draw)
AK: split if flush doesn't hit
KK: no outs

So, if we temporarily pretend we are unlucky and won't hit the K, we're dead 40% of the time. The other 60% we have about 75% of the deck to split.

Equity is around (.40)(0) + (.75)(.60)(.50) = .225 which is plenty considering the pot size. You'll put in at most 2BB on the turn and river and the pot is 15BB just after the turn. So call down all the way assuming no flush hits.

The thing that worries me is that I think AA and KK may be more likely than this because UTG may back off with AK at some point.

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I guess I'm trying to find a way to fold in a situation that by default will see a showdown. How likely does UTG have to have AA or KK to make this a fold?

[private joker]

From my experience at the Hollywood Park yellow-chip games, a PF cap followed by this flop aggression means AA a whole hell of a lot.

Even AK won't lead into you if you cap the flop. I'd probably fold the turn, but that's because I wouldn't have raised the flop.

It's a pretty dry flop except for the heart draw. You might want to just call the flop and raise the turn to push out BB if he has hearts. Then call down a 3-bet. Or else just call flop, call turn, call river -- get to showdown cheap with TPTK and say 'nice hand' when he turns over AA.

[gh9801]

[ QUOTE ]
From my experience at the Hollywood Park yellow-chip games, a PF cap followed by this flop aggression means AA a whole hell of a lot.

Even AK won't lead into you if you cap the flop. I'd probably fold the turn, but that's because I wouldn't have raised the flop.

It's a pretty dry flop except for the heart draw. You might want to just call the flop and raise the turn to push out BB if he has hearts. Then call down a 3-bet. Or else just call flop, call turn, call river -- get to showdown cheap with TPTK and say 'nice hand' when he turns over AA.

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This makes sense, I'm in a WA/WB/chopping situation. Villain actually had KK