200 NL Flopped FH - More missed value?

Ojo_Rojo · #1 10-26-2005, 05:26 AM

Villain is your normal party player, 30/8.

I feel I could have been payed properly if I'd have applied more pressure on the flop, but I decided to check-raise on the turn, which obviously didnt work [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Was I just unlucky a scare card fell?

Comments on all streets welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) converter

MP ($134.35)
Button ($199.58)
SB ($567.68)
Hero ($193.90)
UTG ($291.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($8) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, MP folds, Button raises to $15, SB folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($38) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($38) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25.

Final Pot: $88

Many thanks

Ojo_Rojo

#2 10-26-2005, 05:32 AM

I'd call the flop raise as well, and check the turn. Too much agression on either street could very well scare off alot of possible opponents.

UOPokerPlayer · #3 10-26-2005, 05:50 AM

First thing to address here is the range of hands that villian could have after the flop raise. His action went as follows-
Limp behind on the button, raise a ragged paired flop with two of one suit. From an average party 30/8 player this range isn't that vast. Here's the hands I think he could possibly have.

9x - A9,K9,Q9,J9,109 (A9 for sure, others less likely)
3x - A3 (not as likely to hold a hand with a 3)
Flush Draw + Overs - tons of hands here
Overpair - 8% pfr means 10s+ is probably raising, especially on the button, I'd give this only a small percentage.
Other pair - 33-88 could be there given action

So not to get too extensive, you should look at that hand range as a whole and see what the best way to get money in with. Before that though consider that the missed value of stacking him greatly outweighs the small amounts of value you get from milking a hand like a smaller pair.

In this situation I like to make a raise that still gives villian a ray of hope that he can blast me off my hand as well as good 'pot odds' if he's drawing. 40 is probably my standard play here. He'll fold some hands that would call a small river value bet, but there's the offchance that he'll

1.try to push you off your hand
2.have something he wants to play with but could shy away if a scare hits
3.have something he's going to the felt with if you take him there
4.have something that wants to see another card

The best advantage to this is with a smaller raise you bloat the pot and hugely increase your later value bets. If he calls your flop raise, the pot will be ~88 with each of you having ~150. So a good continual value bet line would be 50 on the turn, and the rest on the river. This offers him a good price on each street.

Ojo_Rojo · #4 10-26-2005, 06:12 AM

thanks for your detailed reply.

[ QUOTE ]
Before that though consider that the missed value of stacking him greatly outweighs the small amounts of value you get from milking a hand like a smaller pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what occurred to me after I saw villains hand. He had a hand outside the hand range that you described - but only just - K3o [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I think he would have had a hard time folding, and I feel a raise on the flop as you described would have stacked him.

Ojo_Rojo

Malachii · #5 10-26-2005, 06:15 AM

A case could be made for 3 betting the flop so a spade doesn't come on the turn and kill your action.

#6 10-26-2005, 06:16 AM

there's really nothing saying that a spade kills the action though. he might like a spade.

Malachii · #7 10-26-2005, 06:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
there's really nothing saying that a spade kills the action though. he might like a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]
A spade scares open trips. Look at what happened on this hand, Villain checked behind on the turn and then just called a river bet. Who knows what happens if we 3 bet this flop? Also if Villain does indeed have a flush draw a 3 bet from Hero screams "Open trips" so Villain might be persuaded in taking a card off at a bad price since the implied odds appear to be there.

#8 10-26-2005, 07:03 AM

Yea, but if you 3-bet the flop, you scare away a weak 9, you scare away spade draws, you scare away any underpair, and maybe even a weak overpair.

Either way, you're scaring someone off at some point...so whichever route you take, I don't think there's a major difference. If you 3-bet the flop and scare someone off, then its YOU thats pushing them away. If you play more passively, then the only thing pushing them away is LUCK (spade), and even that happens only 1/4 of the time.

Hattifnatt · #9 10-26-2005, 07:14 AM

I make it 45-50 on the flop.

If he's got the flushdraw, he might call, if he's got the 3 he might push because he's afraid you got AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something like that and want everything in the middle and put maximum pressure on you.

Playing monsters superfast is very deceptive they say...

#10 10-26-2005, 07:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Playing monsters superfast is very deceptive they say...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that definitely heh. I was playing the other day with AQ and flopped AAQ. I was UTG, and I overbet the flop...apparently everyone thought i was bluffing, and I had 2 callers all-in. Worked for me heh..but for this to work, I believe your FIRST bet has to be an overbet. Otherwise it actually looks like you have the goods. When you bet small, and then raise big, it looks strong.