Atlanta vs. Miami (November 6) - Opportunity Knocks in a Big Way

YoureToast · #1 10-25-2005, 03:16 PM

Mark my words, and I'm rarely wrong about this team.
In 2 weeks, particularly if Miami plays well against New Orleans next week, you will have one of the greatest opportunities of the year: by betting on Atlanta vs. Miami. I will go into more detail later, but among the factors that lead me to this conclusion are these:

1. Sharps think Atlanta is overrated. This viewpoint is reasonable at first glance because they have not played very well this year, despite their 5-2 record.
2. Squares moreso think Atlanta (and Vick in particular) is overrated. Evidence: Dan Patrick suggesting (seriously) on his radio show that perhaps Matt Schaub should start and Vick should be moved to a slash-type role (the idiocy of this idea is beyond the scope of this post)
3. Atlanta is not overrated; they are underrated.
4. The Miami matchup is a good one for Atlanta. (More to come on this)
5. They will be rested and mostly healthy (although the severity of Brady Smith's dislocated big toe is a mitigating factor to be considered).
6. It is likely many of their defensive problems will have been fixed by then.

More to come; stay tuned.

Brad F. · #2 10-25-2005, 03:21 PM

I can't wait to put money on the Dolphins now.

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Brad

#3 10-25-2005, 03:26 PM

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3. Atlanta is not overrated; they are underrated.

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They are, at best, rated to their current ability.

YoureToast · #4 10-25-2005, 03:30 PM

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3. Atlanta is not overrated; they are underrated.

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They are, at best, rated to their current ability.

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Huh?

#5 10-25-2005, 03:33 PM

Toast, thanks for the analysis, but I don't see how anyone can say that Atlanta is underrated. Care to provide some evidence/stats to back up your claim? Did you watch the game last night? I remember back in Week1, I had the Falcons and as I was watching the game I was promising myself that if they covered, I would never bet on Vick again. Vick was horrible but luckily McNabb was worse. Fast forward to this past week and of course I've forgotten everything I learned and I once again I had money on Vick and once again I found myself making the same promise. Conclusion? Vick sucks. And last night they were indoors at home vs one of the worst teams in the league. You can't have more favorable conditions than that. I'll definitely be looking to play Miami that week unless the line is absurd.

YoureToast · #6 10-25-2005, 03:37 PM

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Toast, thanks for the analysis, but I don't see how anyone can say that Atlanta is underrated. Care to provide some evidence/stats to back up your claim? Did you watch the game last night? I remember back in Week1, I had the Falcons and as I was watching the game I was promising myself that if they covered, I would never bet on Vick again. Vick was horrible but luckily McNabb was worse. Fast forward to this past week and of course I've forgotten everything I learned and I once again I had money on Vick and once again I found myself making the same promise. Conclusion? Vick sucks. And last night they were indoors at home vs one of the worst teams in the league. You can't have more favorable conditions than that. I'll definitely be looking to play Miami that week unless the line is absurd.

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This is EXACTLY what I'm thinking (and hoping) others (sharps and squares alike) think. Its wrong and I'll be happy to shed light on why its wrong later. Just don't have time now. Still have 2 weeks.

#7 10-25-2005, 04:21 PM

Well, I guess we'll have to wait for this much-anticipated analysis, but I'm going to have to join the chorus of disbelievers. If you can prove how the stats, sharps, and squares are all wrong on this one, and you and perhaps a bevy of other Atlanta-boosters are right, power to you.

mmbt0ne · #8 10-25-2005, 04:21 PM

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I can't wait to put money on the Dolphins now.

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Brad

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I'm pretty sure YT's Falcon's posts hav been amazingly on point all year. He hypes the games he likes, and usually wins them IIRC.

YoureToast · #9 10-25-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess we'll have to wait for this much-anticipated analysis, but I'm going to have to join the chorus of disbelievers. If you can prove how the stats, sharps, and squares are all wrong on this one, and you and perhaps a bevy of other Atlanta-boosters are right, power to you.

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Lets just say a lot depends on whether the line comes out like I expect it to. Also, I wouldn't expect many stats from my analysis. If there's one thing you can say about Vick, typical stats are almost meaningless. If you don't know what I'm talking about, that will be part of my analysis too. Just so you know also, this bet is not a Vick vs. Miami bet. Sometimes people forget that.

#10 10-25-2005, 04:35 PM

Sure, and I'm genuinely interested to see what you have to say. I believe that the last time you flagged a Falcon game as a "Good Opportunity" it was to predict a 20-pt win over Minnesota, which wasn't so obvious in Week 4. Not to mention I admire the chuztpah in taking on the majority of the gambling population.