these hands kill me

jfresh · #1 10-23-2005, 03:12 PM

opponent is 36/20.
is this an easy fold on the turn? what if the flop had two of the same suit? do i call down with 88? TT?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Lmn55d · #2 10-23-2005, 03:18 PM

How many hands are those stats for? If I don't have a read solid enough to say that villain wouldn't 3bet here with AK/AQ, I call down like you did (folding if an A or K comes). I think there's a bunch of LAG/semiLAG guys in that game who will think you don't have anything and will counter by 3betting.

jfresh · #3 10-23-2005, 03:28 PM

121 hands.

yeah, looks kind of iffy in retrospect with such a raggedy board... but i've seen enough high card aggression in general that folding 66 seems wrong...?

Lmn55d · #4 10-23-2005, 03:44 PM

what is his AF? 120 hands isn't a good number for getting an idea of his AF, but if it's like 4 or .8 we might be able to draw some conclusions.

jfresh · #5 10-23-2005, 03:50 PM

without looking, i'm pretty sure its >1.5 or so, cuz <1.5 i would give them more credit for a hand, esp 3 betting out of the blinds and 3betting my flop raise.

pokertracker says total agg is 3.7 with a 4.33 flop and 3.6 turn...

Lmn55d · #6 10-23-2005, 03:53 PM

that would be enough info for me to call down. I'd probably call down against everyone except those I knew to be on the passive side.

Lmn55d · #7 10-23-2005, 04:03 PM

Ok let's look at this a little deeper. When he 3bets the flop you are getting 14.5:1. Your effective odds to call down are 18.5sb:5sb or about 3.7:1. If he has overcards he actually has 9 outs including the 3 7s. A 9 outer is 1.86:1 to improve by the river. So about 35% of the time he's gonna draw out on you. If he has an overpair, you're gonna draw out on him 8.4% of the time. (We'll ignore the times you both improve for simplicity).

Since we're getting 3.7:1 effective odds, we need to have the best hand at showdown about 21% of the time.

Let x = how often our hand is good

.21 = (Our hand is best and he doesn't improve) + (our hand is not best and we improve) = .65x + (1-x)(.084)

.21 = .65x + .084 - .084x
.126 = .57x
x = 22%

According to these calculations, we need to be good 22%. I think we are against an unknown, don't you?

EDIT : I made a mistake that I fixed. I knew 50% couldn't be right.

Lmn55d · #8 10-23-2005, 04:09 PM

The answer is 22%...if you read it when it said 50% disregard that.

jfresh · #9 10-23-2005, 04:13 PM

maybe if we looked at the fact that i'm not calling down 100% of the time; on the turn if an A, K or possibly a Q falls i probably will fold. because the 4 was a good card for me i decided to call down further.

Lmn55d · #10 10-23-2005, 04:17 PM

yes, this improves your effective odds a bit. Also if you hit a set your implied odds will often be fairly sexy. You saw my edit of the math post right?