What's in your redraw? SS theory question

[Mike]

A friend has noticed that lately I lurk more than I post so I thought I would throw out a redraw question that I watched play out yesterday. I was not in the hand, only a railbird.

I am wondering what you think of Hero's play? This was one of the few times I didn't mind a table coach and a nosy player who was not the hand.

Heads up at the turn Hero has AcQh, against a no frills solid player who's been leading the betting in ep. The board has three small clubs and the Ah.

Villian bets, Hero raises, Villian calls.

River is Js and does not help Hero. Villian bets, Hero calls and loses to two pair - AJ for Villian.

Nosy player asks Hero why the turn raise, and Hero replies because of his Ac he had a redraw to the flush on the river.

I ran this hand/pot through my feeble little mind and arrived at the figure that if the Probability Gods were fair, Hero would make no more than 1 BB if the flush came through like clockwork unless he could get a called raise out of Villian at the river.

What do you think of Hero's play, do you normally raise a redraw draw this thin? If so against what type of player(s)?

It's not a "thin redraw" hand. He's likely to have the best hand AND the best draw with 9 outs to the nut flush, 2 outs to trip aces and 2 outs to pair his queen. A lot of pot equity there. Solid raise.

[Harv72b]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but....doesn't Hero have the best hand and the best draw on the turn? Why wouldn't he raise? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but....doesn't Hero have the best hand and the best draw on the turn? Why wouldn't he raise? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I just write that?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Just kidding.

[Harv72b]

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I just write that?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Just kidding.

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Meh...I grunch. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Mike]

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It's not a "thin redraw" hand. He's likely to have the best hand AND the best draw with 9 outs to the nut flush, 2 outs to trip aces and 2 outs to pair his queen. A lot of pot equity there. Solid raise.

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Of course after seeing their cards, I thought Villian blundered on the Turn, he didn't give kicker strength enough consideration.

Against weaker opposition I agree the turn raise is a no brainer, because of the high probability that on second look Munchkin will start thinking his/her hand isn't that good after all and fold, but against a solid player....?

The pot is not that large, except for Hero's and Villians chips. Villian did lead the betting through the round.

Villian (solid player) on the turn can have anything from an oesd, two pair, or a set giving him a large number of outs to draw for also. He also could be on second nut flush, but Hero's turn raise should shut him down. Of course some of his outs are no good too, but he doesn't know this either.

Doesn't it comes down to the river card for both of them?Hero's rivered flush is his best hope, but will it hold up often enough to make that turn raise worthwhile? Shouldn't the pot have been bigger for Hero to want to make this play?

[Harv72b]

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Doesn't it comes down to the river card for both of them?Hero's rivered flush is his best hope, but will it hold up often enough to make that turn raise worthwhile? Shouldn't the pot have been bigger for Hero to want to make this play?

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Hero has top pair/second kicker. The turn raise is good for that reason alone, even when you don't factor in his nut flush draw. He's going to be ahead a very large percentage of the time, and if he isn't he has at least 7 outs to get there (vs. a made flush). Hero is not making a play here; he's value raising his hand. Villain just got very lucky to catch a 2- or 3-outer on the river in this hand.

Put another way, if you are Hero and your opponent leads into you, then unless that opponent is so incredibly passive that he would never bet with less than a made flush, you should be raising. Against a made flush, you would just want to call. If he's so passive that he'd never bet with less than TPTK, you raise anyway--because that player will not 3-bet you without the flush, you can check through the river UI, and you will probably gain an extra bet when your flush gets there and he check/calls the river (which your passive opponent would do on a 4-flush board whether you raise the turn or not).

I don't know if I'm missing something, but this seems like a no-brainer raise on the turn to me. He probably has the best hand, and the BEST draw possible.

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Against weaker opposition I agree the turn raise is a no brainer, because of the high probability that on second look Munchkin will start thinking his/her hand isn't that good after all and fold, but against a solid player...

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You raise that turn against ANY competition, even if it's Barry Greenstein himself. You're not semi-bluffing here or anything. Given the action, you figure you're very likely to have the best hand. If it isn't, you still have the best draw. You raise for value, period.

Call here and you'll piss the poker gods off. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BTW, you left out preflop. Did Hero show strength by raising/reraising? If he did, villain looks like an idiot with that turn donkbet.

Answer to "why the turn raise" was right, but not made strongly enough - "I had every reason to believe I had the best hand, and outs to make it even better." Seems like a stupid question, actually, unless you misremembered the hand (or if the person asking just wanted to learn).

But maybe Hero didn't want to "tap the fish tank" by talking about villain's betting pattern. If villain has made a habit of leading out when his opponent is showing great strength, damn straight I'm gonna take advantage of it by raising in this kind of circumstance.

By the turn Villain had three outs total, and sucked out on the river. C'est la vie.