Draw heavy board against passive players

Fat Nicky · #1 10-20-2005, 11:08 AM

3/6 - Poker Stars (10 handed)

I only have about 30-40 hands on each player. EP is a 40/2/1 type player, MP a is 30/7/1 type player.

Pre-flop: EP limps, MP limps, I raised in the hijack with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], BB and limpers call. (Pot: ~8SB)

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
EP checks, MP bets, I raise, BB folds, EP calls 2 cold, MP calls. (Pot: ~7BB)

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked to me, what's my plan?

krimson · #2 10-20-2005, 11:10 AM

b/f?

Since they're passive I think we can take advantage of a turn raise having meaning here. If they just call then we have position and can just check behind on the river.

brettbrettr · #3 10-20-2005, 11:11 AM

I'd bet again. If you get raised you're toast but if you're ahead a free card could sink you.

Nick Royale · #4 10-20-2005, 11:11 AM

I would bet/fold.

flair1239 · #5 10-20-2005, 11:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3/6 - Poker Stars (10 handed)

I only have about 30-40 hands on each player. EP is a 40/2/1 type player, MP a is 30/7/1 type player.

Pre-flop: EP limps, MP limps, I raised in the hijack with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], BB and limpers call. (Pot: ~8SB)

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
EP checks, MP bets, I raise, BB folds, EP calls 2 cold, MP calls. (Pot: ~7BB)

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked to me, what's my plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is close between open folding and bet/folding [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Fat Nicky · #6 10-20-2005, 11:36 AM

Seems unanimous that a turn bet is in order, that's what I did...

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check to me and I bet, EP folds, MP calls. (Pot: 9SB)

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
MP bets, Hero ?????

Crying call...or fold?

brettbrettr · #7 10-20-2005, 11:39 AM

Ugh, I hate this spot and I call lots here b/c I figure I'd bet if checked to and I'm addicted to showdown. Its a leak. A fold is pro better.

flair1239 · #8 10-20-2005, 11:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems unanimous that a turn bet is in order, that's what I did...

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check to me and I bet, EP folds, MP calls. (Pot: 9SB)

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
MP bets, Hero ?????

Crying call...or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a spot I am not happy no matter what I do.

Here in all honesty I fold. The player is not terribly aggressive; so to me that makes it less likely that a play is being made.

There is also not a lot of leeway for him to be overvaluing his hand. A bet on his part makes sense, because there is a high likelyhood on this board that we would check behind.

I know we only have to be ahead 8% if the time or something like that, but I just don't see it. Also with this player type, I really don't see any added incentive in calling.

I would be interested to see his WTSD/W$SD numbers, and I acknowledge pot size makes this close. But I really do think the board, the player type, and the action push this to -EV on calling.

Borodog · #9 10-20-2005, 12:03 PM

Hero has far too few hands on Villain to make this fold. In addition, there are meta-game reasons for making this sort of call early on against a new player and at a new table. It seems like you've been at this table for less than an hour, yes?

#10 10-20-2005, 12:05 PM

it's a tough fold, but I agree that you should lay this down on the river. he's been passive till the river, meaning I think he either has 2 spades on maybe a ten here. he could've check/called the turn as a slowplay, hoping you'd raise on the river.