NBA regular season MVP odds and 2+2 votes

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Who do you think the NBA regular season MVP will be? Perhaps you saw this question in the Sporting Events forum. Most 2+2'ers think it will be LeBron, and that is the general opinion of some of the basketball sites I visit.

LeBron at +500 seems like a worthwhile bet to me, and I also like the +1500 longshot odds of T-Mac, in the event that he leads Houston to the 2nd best record in the West, which is not an unlikely event.

What do you guys think, would it be good to place a LeBron wager, or would Duncan and Garnett need to be hedged, which might make it too expensive? Full odds follow below:


Shaquille ONeal +400
LeBron James +500
Kevin Garnett +700
Tim Duncan +700
Dwyane Wade +800
Allen Iverson +1200
Dirk Nowitzki +1200
Kobe Bryant +1200
Jermaine ONeal +1500
Tracy McGrady +1500
Steve Nash +2000
Vince Carter +2000
Jason Kidd +2500
Ray Allen +2500
Yao Ming +2500
Gilbert Arenas +3000
Mike Bibby +3000
Andrei Kirilenko +4000
Baron Davis +4000
Milwaukee Bucks +4000
Richard Hamilton +4000
Carmelo Anthony +5000
Chauncey Billups +5000
Manu Ginobili +5000
Pau Gasol +5000
Paul Pierce +5000
Stephon Marbury +5000
Chris Bosh +6000
Dwight Howard +8000

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Okay, I'm debating 3 options:

1) Safest route: LeBron, Duncan, KG, McGrady (Feel free to replace T-Mac with any longshot of your choice.) If any of these 4 players win, it is +110

2) 2-player wager: LeBron plus your choice of Duncan or KG. +240

3) LeBron alone +500

Does anyone like any of these plays?

I can see Dirk making an outside play for MVP. He's 27 years old and could average 30 ppg with departure of Finley and insertion of defensive-minded Christie into the SL. With Dampier/Howard/Christie mustering about 30 ppg and Terry another 15 ppg, it's going to be the Dirk show. This team will have trouble competing for home field in the West but I think they're being overlooked in general. The "Bowen experiment" with Christie, or M. Daniels if they so choose, could prove strong. Additionally, this is a player whose man to man defense is lacking but whose defensive performance shows up in the stats nicely (>1 stl and >1 blk).

Since in the end you're relying on a bunch of geeky sportswriters to anoint the winner to your bet, always expect the unexpected.