#1
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How can I work out my preflop %
If I see the flop in EP at NL with the following hands:
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 AKs AQs AJs KQs KJs QJs JTs AKo AQo KQ How do I work out the correct probability of me seeing the flop? I started writing down some numbers trying to do it systematically like this Pr(Ace first card) = 1/13 * Pr(Any A, K, Q, Js) = 12/51 Pr(K first card) = 1/13 * Pr(Any Q, Js) = 5/51 etc. Then I realised that I may be not accounting for an ace on the 2nd card, because AK and KA are different when you are doing probability this way...and is the 1/13 for a K falling wrong because I have already factored in that it isn't an ace...I'm getting way too confused here. Haven't done maths for a year now. I'm not asking for anybody to work it out for me, I'm just asking what is the correct way to systematically work out the probability of me seeing the flop with a certain group of hands. Is there an easier way using nCr or nPr? Thanks in advance. |
#2
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
You are making it way too complicated.
There are 52 * 51 / 2 = 1326 distinct starting hands. Each pair can be made 6 ways, each suited hand 4 ways, and each offsuit hand 12 ways. so your answer would be Pairs: 6*6 = 36 ways Suited hands: 7*4 = 28 ways Offsuit hands: 12*3 = 36 ways Total = 100 hands out of 1326 total hands = 7.54% |
#3
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
And that's it? Thanks a lot, saved me a lot of time. 7.54%? That's a small number. I'll work the other positions out myself, which shouldn't be too hard. [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img]
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#4
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
Each offsuit hand can be made 16 ways.
So your % is actual higher. |
#5
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Each offsuit hand can be made 16 ways. So your % is actual higher. [/ QUOTE ] Each non-pair hand can be made 16 ways. 12 of these are offsuit, 4 are suited. |
#6
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
I think you are right. So the percentage I worked out is correct?
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#7
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
He is right.
Anyways, assuming your %'s are right, keep in mind that you are talking about your hands you play outside the blinds... So when you see people say a pro may play between 15-25% (maybe 30 tops) they are including SB and BB which add significantly to %. |
#8
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Re: How can I work out my preflop %
The probability of seeing the flop from EP with one of those hands is reduced in direct proportion to the number of players at your table who watched Gus Hansen on WPT, as they take you all in with 32o or AA....your guess is as good as Sextons!
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