One last shot?

[incognito]

Online $1/$2. I'm in the button with K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]. Two middle position limpers and I raise. The big blind and the two limpers call.

The flop comes 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] (a big swing and a miss...) Checked to me and I bet out, hoping to win the pot right there. The first limper folds, but the other two call.

The turn comes A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img], putting a three flush on the board. Checked to me and I bet out again, hoping they'll make me for a big ace or maybe the diamonds. But they both call. Hoping for a fourth diamond on the river...

The river is a complete blank. Checked to me and I bet, getting 8:1 from the pot and perfectly willing to fold to a check raise, they don't have to fold very often to make this bluff profitable. But the big blind stays with 67o and takes it down.

So, should I have given up somewhere along the way?

[Pirc Defense]

Betting is the only way you're going to win this pot, but it seems this pot just wasn't going to be yours. With two callers the odds are slim that you'll win with A high, K kicker.

It depends on your opponents: if they have shown they can fold, against two other opponents I would bet and fold to a check-raise; if your opponents will just call you down, the river bet probably is one bet too many. Some may say the turn bet is dangerous as there is a good chance you'll get check-raised, but the board looks dangerous to them if they don't hit, and I would have bet the turn also.

And while you're correct about them not needing to fold too often given your pot odds, it's more difficult to get two other opponents to fold, rather than just one. Is 8:1 enough in this case? They either hit something on the flop and have a better hand and call, or miss their draw and fold. It'd be hard to earn another bet in this situation.

That's how I see it.

[rkiray]

How does a 67o beat you? BTW, I think raising with KQo preflop is a big mistake. Not stronge enough with two limpers in. I would just call. If no one was in I would raise.

[incognito]

There was a 7 on the flop, so 67o gives him two pair vs. my pair of fives.

[pufferfish]

I've hand some success (and failure) when bluffing at LL's. I think it's important to know that your opponents can fold. I would also want it HU on the turn, but I have bet into 2 as well.

Also, this is a tough board to bluff. I think you need to look for a board that is more raggedy.

I think I would have check-called the turn and check-folded the river.

TC,
pf

[incognito]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
BTW, I think raising with KQo preflop is a big mistake. Not stronge enough with two limpers in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiousity, what do you think these folks are limping with that's better than KQo? I can see small pocket pairs maybe, but not much else...

[rkiray]

Lots of people will play many hands with an ace. What do you do if an ace hits? I know S&amp;M would recommend you just call here most of the time (a raise to occasionally mix up your play is fine, just don't make this be the default move).

[JTG51]

I'd check behind on the river for two reasons.

First, most opponents aren't going to fold a pair on the river for one bet after calling on the turn. With one opponent the bet would be a lot better. With two opponents though, I don't think they'll both fold often enough to make the bet profitable.

Second, and more importantly, your nut no pair beats any missed draw that he was calling with. If the A hadn't hit the turn you'd have to think about betting to make ace high hands fold. You don't have to worry about that in this situation.

[elysium]

hi in
i think you need to fold on the flop. you have two overs, and i see the back-door, but....well let's see. you're are on the button. and they do check....hmmmm.


ulysses makes an interesting play from time to time that i have added to my repitory there.

what ol' U. does once in a while, when he flops strongly, is from the button he checks it down. this protects him when he has a check down type hand that has a very reasonable chance to improve; a problem area in hold em.

the problem is that often what you wind up accomplishing is giving your opponents correct odds to draw out. checking it down though, in this type situation, with a crummy hand, may be correct. however, betting is always correct if you haven't checked a few made hands down like some of the better players do.

on the turn, you must bet. and you must make the turn here your effort to win unimproved. if you are called after your strong show on the pre-flop, flop and turn, you can check the river down. it's close though. it's just that in these type situations, a river bet is not mandatory. could you have checked down the turn? no way. on the river, it's so close that it doesn't matter. make image the deciding factor. if you need to show that you sometimes will bluff on the river, then bet. is your bet a bluff? no, but if you don't win, your opponents will consider it a bluff. it may stand up unimproved though. that's where i'm having difficulty.

i'm not sure that you won't win at a rate of 8 to 1 on the river check-down. i'm going to ask. but if you don't win at that rate,....i don't think you're odds of getting the fold are 8 to 1 as you suggest. i have 10-1 to 12-1. i have you winning unimproved on the showdown at about that, given the action and the checks to you. does the none action AND the checks to you on the river give you better than 10-1 on the showdown? that's what it is that....good post.

i'm going to say that because of the action, then followed by the checks to you on the river, you stand at least as good a chance to win unimproved as you would by betting and getting a better hand to fold. also, opponent knowledge and image are not factors here on the river. this is call with anything territory. also, AX won't fold; that knowledge helps us here. the only hand folding that beats you would have to be....what?

it's interesting how the A factors here. that lone A means that any hand that will fold, you beat. and no hand that beats you will fold. even a small pair will call. but assuming that a small pair will fold, who has a small pair here? no. it is very interesting how the lone A on board determines what you do. that lone ace means you must check it down. the odds for someone having a small pair and then will fold the small pair, are not good. that's what's so...when you go to bet the river, you know it's wrong, but know we now we know why. it is wrong to bet the river because first, the A knocks out any AX as a candidate to fold for your river bet; second, the paired board means that someone can only be holding exactly a 7 to make betting correct. if the seven was paired and the 5 was the lone possible pair, getting the fold is slightly more probable. we cannot consider the rag that fell on the river since you correctly bet the turn.

[Clarkmeister]

I'd raise KQo in LP vs two limpers in a LL game 100% of the time.