JJ Hand

CashFlo · #1 10-16-2005, 01:52 PM

First orbit, no reads.

Too weak-tight on the turn? Thanks.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 players)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
[/b] UTG Calls, 4 folds, CO Calls, Hero Raises, 2 folds, UTG Calls, CO Calls.

Flop: (7.5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG Bets, CO Folds, Hero Raises, UTG Calls.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG Bets, Hero Folds.

hobbsmann · #2 10-16-2005, 04:28 PM

I call down. I would expect this guy to c/r the turn if he really had a K.

shant · #3 10-16-2005, 04:29 PM

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I call down.

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I initially thought this, but maybe we should raise/fold to 3-bet. An A or Q river is going to suck to call, where if our raise is just called on the turn here, I think we can value-bet the river too.

Borodog · #4 10-16-2005, 05:00 PM

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we should raise/fold to 3-bet.

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Yes.

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if our raise is just called on the turn here, I think we can value-bet the river too.

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Excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth a little. If you get called here, take your free showdown. Once you've raised preflop, flop, and turn, even many opponents with a crappy King will put you on a better one and be making crying calls.

eviljeff · #5 10-16-2005, 05:03 PM

I've found that donk bets like this are much more likely in cases where the donk does not have a K. I'm going to showdown.

Delzek15 · #6 10-16-2005, 05:54 PM

I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

Borodog · #7 10-16-2005, 06:26 PM

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I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

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This is a reason to raise, not call, the turn stop and go.

hobbsmann · #8 10-16-2005, 06:55 PM

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I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

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This is a reason to raise, not call, the turn stop and go.

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If you are going to raise the turn then you really need to be value betting the river.

The reason I don't like raising this turn is that I don't want to put myself in position to fold the best hand. I think two bets going in on the big streets is preferable so I call the turn and call a river bet or bet if checked to.

Borodog · #9 10-16-2005, 07:24 PM

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If you are going to raise the turn then you really need to be value betting the river.

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Not true. We raise the turn because we don't want to see an Ace or a Queen drop off the deck, nor give a free shot to boat up to an underpair. If our turn raise is called, though, we are very often looking at a poor King. In other words, once the second King hits and he stop & go's me, which I don't think is usually a King, but might be, I've decided I'm putting in 2 more BB, and that's all. If he 3-bets me on the turn, I'm folding. Honestly, if you get 3-bet on the turn on this board, JJ is good 0% of the time. But once he calls my 3-bet, his chances of having a poor king go way up. So far up that I'm checking behind on the river.

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The reason I don't like raising this turn is that I don't want to put myself in position to fold the best hand. I think two bets going in on the big streets is preferable so I call the turn and call a river bet or bet if checked to.

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Again, you get 3-bet here on the turn with a hand that loses to JJ 0% of the time. The only argument I can see for calling the turn instead of raising with the intention of folding to a 3-bet is that you lose the chance to boat up on the river for the same price. But I don't think letting an A, Q, or his boat hit the river for free makes up for drawing to a 2 outer because you fear a King that he usually doesn't have.

For the record, I don't think a call-down is terrible. I just prefer raise/fold, check behind better.

One thing I'm not sure what I would do with is this: You raise the turn, he calls . . . and stop & go's you again. WTF?

hobbsmann · #10 10-16-2005, 10:13 PM

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Not true. We raise the turn because we don't want to see an Ace or a Queen drop off the deck, nor give a free shot to boat up to an underpair. If our turn raise is called, though, we are very often looking at a poor King. In other words, once the second King hits and he stop & go's me, which I don't think is usually a King, but might be, I've decided I'm putting in 2 more BB, and that's all. If he 3-bets me on the turn, I'm folding. Honestly, if you get 3-bet on the turn on this board, JJ is good 0% of the time. But once he calls my 3-bet, his chances of having a poor king go way up. So far up that I'm checking behind on the river.

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The reason I think raising this turn is not optimal is that the hands that have outs against us, don't have very many (i.e read 3 or so) except for exactly AQ. I prefer to treat this as a WA/WB type situation where you allow villian to keep betting with a worse hand. I guess I kind of agree with now that the times a raise on the turn is called villian will have a K a fair portion of the time. But, this should be even more a reason to not raise as when we are behind and raise we stand to lose 2 bets and win 1 bet while when we call/call we stand to win 2 bets when ahead.