50-100 AKo TPTK laydown solve this one for Rory and me

[DrGutshot]

Haven't been playing in the game long but have been datamining it a little while. I'm to the left of a loose idiot, but the opponent in this hand is a 25/7/1.2 on the other side of the table from me.

He has been involved in a few hands but hasn't really made it to many showdowns. I have not been in any hands with him. He seems pretty much what the numbers say, loose preflop, a little weak. FWIW: I was not very confident in my knowledge of how he played. Ten Handed:

I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG, folded to him he 3bets on the button, folded back to me I call.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check he bets I call.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I think and bet, he raises, I groan and call.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, he bets, I fold.

FWIW: After his river bet, I put him on nothing other than an unlikely 99 and QQ, more likely TT, AK, AQ. If you factor in a ridiculously small chance he has AJ, does that change your opinion?

I'll post my thinking afterwards, what do you guys think?

-DrG

edit: changed title

[smurfitup]

the numbers and his betting inidicate that he has a big hand, and it looks like he didn't even flinch after your turn bet. at the same time, he hasn't shown down a hand yet, so you can't be too sure that he's not getting out of line w/ at or some suited ace or even a bluff. i think you can call here if only to gain information for subsequent hands.

[Jeff W]

I'm pretty sure you have to call this river getting 9.75:1 just based on the possibility of a split:

Board: Td 9s 6s Ac Qs
equity (%)
77% { AA, TT, AQs+, AKo }
23% { AhKc }

If he 3-bets AQo, your equity is still 16%. Add 99 and it only drops to 13%(still a call).

[sublime]

noah-

i usually call. my simplistic way of thinking is a lot of online players play AK like this.

of course that board supports some set possibilities and the Q sucks also. i call because i am a fish.

edit: changed title

what was it before? rory kills women and eats their toes?

[Dominic]

I don't know...you're getting 9.5 - 1 to close the action...I'm calling, if for no other reason to see what what hand he's playing like that.

[sthief09]

my intuition tells me this is a terrible fold. I don't know that he 3-bets 99 with a 7 PFR, so you're looking at AA, TT, AK. 6 sets, 8 AK. how can you possibly fold?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling, if for no other reason to see what what hand he's playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]



that's a pretty terrible reason in this hand.

[PokerBob]

i really hate this fold.

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
i really hate this fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my intuition tells me this is a terrible fold. I don't know that he 3-bets 99 with a 7 PFR, so you're looking at AA, TT, AK. 6 sets, 8 AK. how can you possibly fold?



[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm glad all of you hate this fold, I didn't actually fold I called and lost to TT. Just wanted to make sure I was on the right page here. Rory and I worked out the math of it and it turns out it's a terrible fold costing about a full half of a bet - assuming I am never ahead and only hoping to chop.

Anyways, thanks for the responses, just wanted to make sure I was thinking straight.

-DrG

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling, if for no other reason to see what what hand he's playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]



that's a pretty terrible reason in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously, I'm exaggerating, as there are many other compelling reasons not to fold this hand - as you have pointed out yourself.