Near the bubble, short stack, hand analysis

[phoenix6]

Qualifier.. top ten pay, thirteen left.


***** Hand History for Game 2873279458 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:16563778 Level:14 Blinds (1000/2000) - Thursday, October 13, 23:00:33 EDT 2005
Table $200K Saturday Qualifier(487088) Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: phoenix6 ( $11081 )
Seat 4: LooseHal ( $20230 )
Seat 5: mausiboss ( $18926 )
Seat 6: oneround ( $14608 )
Seat 7: Deimos27 ( $12674 )
Seat 8: fewill ( $13962 )
Seat 9: BRaffiani ( $30463 )
Trny:16563778 Level:14
Blinds (1000/2000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to phoenix6 [ 8h Jc ]
LooseHal folds.
mausiboss folds.
oneround folds.
Deimos27 folds.
fewill calls [2000].
BRaffiani folds.
phoenix6 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, Tc, 8s ]

Flopped trips, I can bet out and be happy with the 5k chips if folded or be in good shape if called. The problem is I'm short stack of the field of 13 and feel I need some chips and this may be my best chance to acquire some. A check here is highly likely to induce a bet from the button. I check planning to re-raise.

phoenix6 checks.

fewill checks.

This is a suprise, and an unwelcome one. The vast majority of hands for the past half hour have been settled pre-flop or on the flop... the only turn cards we've seen have been
playing out the all-ins. I try to put him on a hand which calls from the button and checks the flop. The most likely are hands that have a draw and want to see the turn card,
or trapping hands: high pair, or an 8, TT would raise pre-flop, Tx should bet the flop. I think he would raise any pair or strong Ace or King. A hand like JQ is certainly possible as well. Of the range of hands I think the most likely is 2 clubs with one overcard, but hope he is holding AA or KK.


** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
phoenix6 bets [3000].

I have to bet here, giving another free card is terrible. The only question is all-in or a value bet. I have 9k opponent has 12k, pot is 5k; I have put opponent on a flush draw and maybe, just maybe, and hopefully, an overpair. My stack size, how should I put it, umm... sucks.
The board is not exactly what I would like to see, a little bit of red would have been nice on the turn. An all-in bet puts some pressure on opponent but he has the button, if he calls and hits he is in great shape, if he calls and misses, he has several hands to try and double up before the blinds catch him. He may want to gamble here thinking that he has 9 outs to the flush and an additional 3 outs to any overcard he holds. Well, that is if he thinks the duece helped me by pairing or maybe giving me a flush draw.

I tank and decide to bet 3k into the 5k pot. I am expecting to get called here. Opponent would count his outs at 9 to the flush plus overpairs to the ten -- 12 to 15 outs. In reality the overcards are not outs and only 8 of the 9 flush cards are his as the last pairs the board
to my fullhouse. My thinking was to fold to a club on the river (right or wrong), but he doesn't know that and may calculate his implied odds based on my whole stack.

I was thinking, okay, if the river is a club and I fold then I have 6k which is enough to steal from the tight
smaller stacks (i'll get swatted like a fly by the big stacks). This thinking is flawed because I ignored the fact I have the small blind next hand and may be down to 5k after my SB hand.

Anyway, 3k seemed right, it gives him the wrong odds to call, if I win the pot it gives me enough to cover the blinds one additional orbit, and it leaves my opponent with enough chips to play with if he folds on the river.

fewill calls [3000].

I think the overpair re-raises here with two flush draws on board, so mystery solved... still on a draw and with the wrong odds. Man, I wish had raised.

** Dealing River ** [ As ]

Now what? If a club comes, I check fold, and plan on stealing sometime soon. A red Ace I check and hope for a bluff, or a weak Ace (oh please A2), to value bet. Any other red card I push. But a spade? This is worst case scenario. Well, almost; the fact it is the Ace slightly decreases the odds opponent was on the spade flush draw, as the Ace is the most likely holding. A call with a weak Ax is well within his range of hands (as is a weak K) given the way the hand has played out.

So, once again, now what? I am not laying this hand down, even though the betting is consistent with a weak
2 spade draw. Runner, runner spades is just too much monsters under the bed for me. Two options: bet all-in or check-call. I think I have no FE here. If he has the spade flush I am dead, he won't check behind (even though I bet the 2nd spade on the turn). I figure I am all-in on
this hand and there are a few hands he may not bet that he would call with... so all-in it is.

phoenix6 is all-In [6081]
fewill calls [6081].

I think checking the flop is wrong. If I bet out 3k and he has something to play with, or thinks I'm bluffing the 8 he calls. If he folds I pick up 3k, which is enough for another orbit.
I thought there was a 90 percent chance the button bets here and I could pick up a few more much needed chips. I guess, also, a bet may be interpreted as weak as a strong hand might go for a check/raise here.

I know that betting the flop and pushing the turn make playing this hand out of position easier on me and tougher on the opponent, but the tournament dynamics were a strong
consideration in choosing this line.

Comments?