Pocket JJ against K on the flop

friends · #1 10-14-2005, 12:10 PM

No reads on MP1.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB.

Did I play right?

xenthebrain · #2 10-14-2005, 12:13 PM

I like it

bozlax · #3 10-14-2005, 12:14 PM

Heroically standard.

aargh57 · #4 10-14-2005, 12:17 PM

Without reads I think I play it the same. Against an ultra tight player that would never bet 2nd pair or a draw you can fold (but that would be rare).

#5 10-14-2005, 12:23 PM

Grunch/Wookieing…

Preflop: On the money…maximizing pot equity advantage.

Flop: Good raise to protect, value, and information. If he had Kx or a better PP I would have expected a 3-bet.

Turn: Good raise for value.

River: I would raise here again for value. We shouldn't be afraid of a baby str8 especially against an unknown. If he did have QQ-AA or the str8, nothing else we could do. Other than not raising the river I like your play.

TheKentock · #6 10-14-2005, 12:24 PM

You guys don't think there's any value in a river bet? I can think of several hands that will call us that we beat. Lower pocket pair, A8, even A4 if he's bad, which he could be. Remember, no reads, so unless this guy gives us a reason to think he's better than the average Party 1/2 player, I'm not going to give him credit.

#7 10-14-2005, 12:26 PM

Bet the river. After that check on the turn, I think you are usually good here. Players may flop bet their FD, 2nd pair, or whatever.

lautzutao · #8 10-14-2005, 12:37 PM

Looks goodie goodie to me. Others I noticed talked about value betting the river. I don't like doing this because the raise on the flop will tighten up someone playing the weak-king.

If you know your opponent would bet the river with TPWK, then a value bet is good on the river. Otherwise I just check the river.

#9 10-14-2005, 12:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Others I noticed talked about value betting the river. I don't like doing this because the raise on the flop will tighten up someone playing the weak-king.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't thought of that. Is this covered in any of the standard texts? (I've only read GSIH, SSH is in the mail)

aargh57 · #10 10-14-2005, 12:46 PM

While we will be called here with some hands we beat we have to be good at least %50 when we're called. Let's put his hands and some values with them:
A5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]= 1%
2 suited = 30%
Top Pair = 35%
2nd pair (or 99/TT)= 25%
3rd pair = 5%
Other (gutshot, lower PP, =4%

I put A5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in it's own category to figure out the river %'s.
Now if we bet the river what will happen:
Folding suited cards ~ 90% (He may call with something like AT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but probably not)
Straight = call
TP= call
2nd Pair = call ~ 85%
3rd Pair = call ~ 20%
junk = call ~ 0%

So he will fold 15%*25% + 80%*5% + 100%*4% or 11.75% of the time.
OK, now I'm a little confused [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. How do I proceed with this problem. The remaining 88.25% of the time we want to find out the % of the time we will be ahead when we call. Can somebody please help me out. I was going to say were only beat 36% of the time (TP + strt%'s) but I don't think that's right given that now we've taken away a lot of the hands. Sorry, just trying to think this through.