Super Sat - Do I have odds to call this steal gone bad?

[The Student]

This is a Stars $11 rebuy turbo super sat for the Sunday $215. About 20 minutes after the rebuy period is over, so we're all pretty shortstacked (blinds rise every 5 minutes), so people aren't afraid to push. I'm trying to stay ahead of the blinds by stealing from scared players who don't defend their blinds - so I'm not afraid to put in a PFR with marginal cards. Villian just moved to the table so I have no read on him. So here's the hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) converter

Button (t4545)
SB (t9310)
BB (t6410)
UTG (t7755)
UTG+1 (t2040)
MP1 (t150)
Hero (t7305)
MP3 (t3765)
CO (t18745)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4495</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls ???.

The pot is 7645 with 2695 to me to call. So the pot is laying me 2.8:1 to call. If I'm up against overcards, then I have the odds to call, but if I'm facing an overpair, I don't. In a normal MTT I would fold this, but in this turbo supersat, I've seen a lot of people push with strong aces in this situation, so I think there's a pretty good chance I'm up against overs.

However, since we are still pretty far away from making the money, I'll have to gamble sooner or later - maybe now is the time to do it. If I call and lose, I'm down to about 4xBB or M=3, defintely a problem with the blinds coming up. On the other hand, the blinds are rising fast, and if I fold I'll have a little over 9xBB, but that will drop fast since blinds are rising in a minute and headed my way (within a few hands I could be down to around 4000 = 5xBB, or a M of 3 or so).

Do I make this call?

ts-

[The Student]

Anybody on the night shift want to help out?

Thanks,

ts-

[ansky451]

Insta call. And in a regular MTT its also an insta-call.

[DyessMan89]

Button had 9X the BB to start the hand. Hes getting desperate, and the chances of him having an overpair are slim. I insta-call this. If he shows you QQ, tough luck, but you have to call here.

[rockythecat99]

You had odds to call here even if he has A9. You only don't have odds if he has TT-AA. CALL!!!!

[adanthar]

Yes, you should, and it should teach you an important lesson: always take stack sizes into account when stealing.

[The Student]

hey ansky, congrats on your FT earlier today.

really - you call this in a regular MTT too? I am bit surprised by this because of the difference in 1. blind structures and 2. playing tendencies.

1. Blind Structure
If I fold, I'm still in push/fold territory, but at least I can wait a bit longer to find a hand. If I fold I'm at 5500 and the blinds at 300/600 50A, so I can wait a round and still have 4150 and a respectable amount of FE. still an insta-call here?

2. Playing tendencies
In a regular MTT, I don't think people are as willing to push over the top with just 2 broadways. This means that it's much more likely that I'm up against an overpair than just overcards.

What do you think of this analysis of this decision in a regular MTT? Anything you disagree with?

thanks for the response,

ts-

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you should, and it should teach you an important lesson: always take stack sizes into account when stealing.

[/ QUOTE ]

normally I do take stack size into account, but that's part of what make these turbo supersats so tricky for me. at some point nearly everyone at the table is shortstacked, and I'm not sure what the best strategy is for staying ahead of the blinds - sit and wait for a legitimate raising hand, or try to steal the blinds off the tighter players with marginal cards. With the blinds rising every 5 minutes, you usually only get through 1/2 an orbit before the blinds rise, so I don't think you can wait for the cards to come to you.

In this case, I was one of the bigger stacks at the table, but I definitely would have folded if someone with an equal or larger stack had put me all-in.

these turbos are tricky...