value bet at end?

[wslee00]

1/2 live game
I have $500, villain - $800
Villain is fairly loose players, likes to call alot. My table image is tight, but I don't think he notices that.
I'm MP with AA, Two callers ahead of me, I raise to $15
Both original callers call
Pot ~$45
Flop: T 8 3
Check, I bet $25
Villain min-raises, other guy folds
I call
Pot: ~95
Turn: 4
Villain bets out $50. I min-raise to $100
He calls.
Pot: 295
River: 2
Villain Checks. Do I value bet here? And if so, how much?

[kitaristi0]

I bet more like $35-$45 on the flop, and then reraise his raise a goodly amount.

Raise more on the turn.

I value bet ~$150-$200. You said he likes to call a lot, so probably closer to $200.

[wslee00]

I just felt that if I raise his check-raise, he will fold. I WANT him in the hand. My min-raise on the turn was just for information. If he went over the top of me, then I knew I was beat and I can easily fold. If not, I gain an extra $50. I guess my question here is how much could I actually extract from this guy with my AA, b/c this guy was a complete donk.

[fuzzbox]

If he likes to call a lot - then how come he is raising here?

When calling stations suddenly start raising me, then this is out of character, and alarm bells go off in my head.

[Mr. Sakuraba]

I think villian has 88 or TT. When he min raises the flop i would consider laying it down. When he leads the turn i know i'm beat and give it up.

I think he's checking the river to let you bet so he can extract as much as possible from you. Is my thinking off?

[wslee00]

i don't know - maybe i'm playing w/ complete donks. I bet $100 at the end. He calls. I show AA, he mucks. I think he had AT. Maybe he just put me on AK the entire time.

you know what - nix that - I don't think he put me on anything - he just knew he had a 10 and hoped it was good.

[Kirkrrr]

Did you get any read whatsoever when he called you on the turn? If I had a decent read in a live game against a mediocre player that likes to call, I push the river. Without a read, check behind.

Kirk

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villian has 88 or TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a donk'ish opponent in a small stakes live game, his rand range here is FAR greater than the set... btw, you can add T,8s to that mix as well while you're at it. But regardless, AT, KTs, xT, 99, and even some 77 will do the same in those games because they KNOW you have AK and missed.

[ QUOTE ]
When he min raises the flop i would consider laying it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

The times you might be right will not compensate for the majority of the time where you will be wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
When he leads the turn i know i'm beat and give it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

He min-raised the flop, and practically min-bet the turn... yes, he might be doing that with a set and is simply desperate to make any money whatsoever in a typical donk'ish fashion, but I doubt it. Hero's line was right on - raise the turn, fold if he comes over the top, while he's fairly sure he's ahead if he doesn't. He didn't, so I assume my AA are good at that point.

[ QUOTE ]
Is my thinking off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so, yes.

Kirk

[djoyce003]

Based on your original post my thinking was check behind on the river because people that call a lot don't tend to raise with top pair...they tend to call or lead out, but they don't tend to checkraise. I think your read was either wrong or misleading because this guy is not a calling station....he's no doubt probably very bad, but he's at least moderately agressive.

If I had the read that he'd raise with top pair, then I probably play it just like you did....once he flat calls that turn I suspect i'm ahead here and value bet the river for an amount I think he'd call...whatever that is...my default is half pot.