Astros/Cardinals

MEbenhoe · #1 10-09-2005, 11:47 PM

Early lines on this series

Astros +175
Cardinals -185

Game 1
Hou - Pettite +150
Stl - Carpenter -160

I'm on Houston for both of these. Pettite is such a good postseason pitcher, and the Astros are def better than 36% to win this series.

bills217 · #2 10-09-2005, 11:50 PM

I would have to agree. The books seem to hate the Astros, don't know why.

I didn't plan on betting Game 1 of Astros-Braves because I figured Houston to be a prohibitive favorite...only to find minutes before game-time that they were actually the dog.

Let's just say I did real well on that series.

LotsOfOuts69 · #3 10-10-2005, 01:42 AM

I got the Astros to win the NL Pennant back in early July at 40 to 1. Think I should hedge it with the cardinals at -185? or wait to see if there is an elimination game?

--LoO

MyTurn2Raise · #4 10-10-2005, 02:09 AM

I would wait to hedge until the Astros get 3 losses and might be eliminated. When hedging, I'd just bet on the Cardinals for that game, not the series.

My thinking is that it would be rare for the Cardinals to be a big favorite in any one game given the potential pitching matchups (Pettitte, Oswalt, or Clemens as that kind of underdog). For example, with Carpenter, the Cards are still only about -160 for the game. Thus, you will pay less than -185 to cover it. If the Astros never reach an elimination game, you pay nothing.

The downside is if the Astros battle for a game or two down in the series with 3 losses. You might have to hedge 2 or more times and it will cut into profits.

Way out the chances_
Astros never reach elimination status--no loss
Astros lose in first elimination try--hedge earlier bet
Astros lose in 2nd/3rd/or 4th elimination game--you get profits from betting on the cards and hedge first bet
Astros lose in 1st(2nd,3rd) elimination game, but win series--worst case for hedging, but be happy that the 40 to 1 wins

% of hedge is all up to you. You can decide risk-reward. Good bet...you've locked in profit

LotsOfOuts69 · #5 10-10-2005, 02:36 AM

Thanks for the post MyTurn, I got some gamble in me so I'm gonna wait till the elimination game.

I only put $100 on it, I wish I had put $1000, if I had, I'd be flying to Vegas in a few days right now to enjoy the series and be in person to collect my winnings.

--LoO

MyTurn2Raise · #6 10-10-2005, 03:03 AM

thanks...btw, i meant weigh, not 'way'--that is just awful on my part

mrbaseball · #7 10-10-2005, 08:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Astros are def better than 36% to win this series

[/ QUOTE ]

You hafta wonder just what kind of drugs the linesmakers are on for just about every series line so far. This should be much closer to a coinflip. It should be close and it should be closely contested and a line this wide is just stupid. I must assume the books are up to their asses in StL preseason futures bets so they once again pay us to play the side they hopes will win.

Feltin Licter · #8 10-10-2005, 01:26 PM

I agree this line is a joke. I just hate the Astros (its personal) not sure what to do here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mr B! Do you see any edge in tonights game? I'm thinking LAA -1 1/2. If the very streaky Moose is off and they get into that pen, it could very easily be a blowout. +192 is pretty fat...

mrbaseball · #9 10-10-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Mr B! Do you see any edge in tonights game?

[/ QUOTE ]

None. It looks pretty fair to me. My spreadsheet spit out -115 Angels and that's about what it is.

The pens are tricky tonight. Shields and Escobar have gotten a lot of work in the last 2 games and Rivera went 2 innings last night. Being an elimination game it means anyone and everyone is available.

I'm laying off of this one and hoping the LAA series bet comes in although I'm not hedging it.

On Hou/StL I think StL should be a -125/-130ish favorite making the +175 on Hou decent enough edge to bet.

scott8 · #10 10-10-2005, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You hafta wonder just what kind of drugs the linesmakers are on for just about every series line so far. This should be much closer to a coinflip. It should be close and it should be closely contested and a line this wide is just stupid. I must assume the books are up to their asses in StL preseason futures bets so they once again pay us to play the side they hopes will win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its posts like these that make this forum valuable.