Turn 3-bet?

Willluck · #1 10-07-2005, 05:53 PM

Party 3/6, 6-max (6-handed)
UTG+1 is a TAG and is 27/17/1.9 after 400+, unfortunately I know very little more about the way he plays. No other reads.

I'm dealt [ Ks Kc ] UTG
I raise, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, I cap, everyone calls.

(4 players)** Flop ** [ 3s, 5h, Jh ](16 sbs)
checked to me and I bet, UTG+1 calls, sb folds, BB calls

(3 players)** Turn ** [ Td ](9.5 bb)
BB checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises, bb folds, I...???

Willluck · #2 10-08-2005, 03:55 PM

I really want to see what people have to say about this one.

wackjob · #3 10-08-2005, 04:00 PM

First off, TAG's don't often cold call an UTG raise from another TAG. When he raises that turn you have to figure he has 2pair or a set, with the slight chance hes getting tricky with a draw or TPTK. I definately do not 3-bet here against this opponent.

MAxx · #4 10-08-2005, 04:05 PM

i'd call it down

Willluck · #5 10-08-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First off, TAG's don't often cold call an UTG raise from another TAG. When he raises that turn you have to figure he has 2pair or a set, with the slight chance hes getting tricky with a draw or TPTK. I definately do not 3-bet here against this opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]that's kinda what I was thinking...but then I started thinking about hands that I'd cold call with(KQs, maybe QJs, maybe JTs) and realized I was ahead of most in that range(and drawing heavy if behind). Only problem is that if he was raising any of the hands I was ahead of here he is making a huge mistake...so quite a predicament.

wackjob · #6 10-08-2005, 04:33 PM

Cold calling with J10s or QJs to an UTG raise from a TAG is a mistake IMO. Calling OTB after a raise and 2 cold callers is a lot better IMO. J10 & QJ are so very often dominated by a TAG raising UTG.

I doubt this guy is raising with a hand you currently have beat, however I think it is likely he has a weak 2-pair quite often and you have the odds to improve to a better 2-pair or a set.

StellarWind · #7 10-08-2005, 04:47 PM

Crying call. His failure to raise the flop in front of the field is ominous. I fear a set or clever AA.

StellarWind · #8 10-08-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
however I think it is likely he has a weak 2-pair quite often

[/ QUOTE ]
What two pair is that? JT is possible. Players like this don't coldcall with total trash.

Willluck · #9 10-08-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Crying call. His failure to raise the flop in front of the field is ominous. I fear a set or clever AA.

[/ QUOTE ]I honestly was thinking this looked an awful lot like KQh misplayed, or another misplayed flush draw. That is why I kinda wanted to 3-bet it.

StellarWind · #10 10-08-2005, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Crying call. His failure to raise the flop in front of the field is ominous. I fear a set or clever AA.

[/ QUOTE ]I honestly was thinking this looked an awful lot like KQh misplayed, or another misplayed flush draw. That is why I kinda wanted to 3-bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well it is certainly possible and that's why you call down. But K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a single hand and you are further assuming he played it this particular way. Only a handful of other flush draws make reasonable cold calls.

Why can't he have 55 or 33 and be playing like a normal person? Plus when he has a set you get capped with 2 outs. When he has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] he calls with 15 outs. You lose 1/3 of the time and only net EV = +1/3 BB for being right.

Plus if you shut up he may try and push you off AK/AQ when his draw busts. 3-bet now and there is nothing for you on the river.