Help me figure out this PLO8 move.

[Wintermute]

You have 4 big cards in a heads up situation against an aggressive player, who raised PF. The flop puts out two to the low but gives you top pair. You check, the other guy pots it. Clear fold, right? I've seen (and fallen victim to) a player w/ the top pair hand calling to see what the turn brings. Release on any low card, if you catch 2nd pair, check-raise or pot-bet. It seems like a weak play on the surface but I'm wondering if it can win long-run.

For example, Villain has following stats:

{{TOT HANDS: 551 - BB/100: (8.0)
VP$IP: 60 - PFR: 18
WON: ($1,801) - CR: 1.43
WSD: 35.5 - W$SD: 54.5}}

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 9: Hero ( $447.45 )
Seat 5: zeeman72 ( $424.20 )
Seat 1: Villain ( $346.60 )
Seat 6: HOLDEMVICTIM ( $243.90 )
Hero posts small blind [$2].
Villain posts big blind [$4].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9s Tc Ah Jh ]

zeeman72 folds.
HOLDEMVICTIM folds.
Hero calls [$2].
Villain raises [$6].
Hero calls [$6].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, 6h, Jc ]

Hero checks.
Villain bets [$19].
Hero calls [$19].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]

Hero checks.
Villain checks. <-- I missed the chk-raise, but you get the idea.

** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]

Hero bets [$56].
Villain folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $112

Think this play has merit long-run?

[jthegreat]

I like it. It keeps you from putting in a lot of money until you have a strong hand or strong hand + strong draw and he's likely to call a big bet chasing the low.

Me likey, especially against an aggressive player who will bet anything if checked to.

[Mendacious]

Childsplay, although I'm not crazy about the 3 on the turn in your example.

I do think you should do this from time to time. I think its about a 50/50 move, but I think it discourages the low draw from leading out so readily.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
Childsplay, although I'm not crazy about the 3 on the turn in your example.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this sentence at all. Are you saying this is a standard/simplistic move?

[Mendacious]

Yes. I would think that this would be a routine or common move on your part, absolutely.

I am just not sure how often I would employ it when a 3 (or 2) pairs on the board.

[Wintermute]

you call w/ just TPTK on the flop on that board routinely? I sure as hell don't... but maybe I'm missing some equity as an upshot.

[jthegreat]

I think it mainly depends on the opponent. You're only calling here if the implied odds are good. You have a hand that can improve in several ways to a strong hand but it's only worth drawing IF you think the opponent will pay you off. If he won't, you're paying a high price for what's probably a runner runner draw.

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
you call w/ just TPTK on the flop on that board routinely? I sure as hell don't... but maybe I'm missing some equity as an upshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think so, with two cards to come the low is coming 70% of the time. You are betting on 30% when you call on the flop. I dont like those odds at all. On the turn the low is coming 40% of the time. Overall I hate the play and it will definately cost money in the long run.

Also holy crap ive never seen so many people jump on the wrong side of an argument because a guy wins a hand before, LOL.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]

Also holy crap ive never seen so many people jump on the wrong side of an argument because a guy wins a hand before, LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. If I got raised and had to lay this down, I'm sure everyone would be talking about how stupid the flop call was.

But back to this move in general, it may be that the low comes by the river 70% of the time, but if I can dodge the low on the turn (what, 60%?), then my hand is going to improve to two pair or a pair with some nice straight draws, and I can charge the other guy a pretty expensive amount to see that river (assuming he doesn't check behind, like this guy happened to).

My hunch is that this strategy is profitable if you use it sparingly (so that opponents don't try to set you up to take a huge fall) and against only the most aggressive players.