Final Table PS$10+1, Push or Fold?

MeanGreenTT · #1 10-06-2005, 04:47 PM

Blinds at 10k/20k/1k Big stacks are aggressive but when I've pushed I've taken down the pot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20000 (5 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB (t436537)
Hero (t150890)
MP (t1024943)
Button (t134828)
SB (t259802)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ???

SheepCookers · #2 10-06-2005, 05:51 PM

What's the payouts, there are couple of more short stacks there? Does finishing 3rd vs 5th makes a difference or you really want to win? Do you think you would get called by Ax,KQo,KJs here or only top qualify hands? Generally I wouldn't but if you do get caught you are not likely to be dominated.

Brad F. · #3 10-06-2005, 06:05 PM

I like a push here.

Either you win the pot (35k) and increase your stack by 20%, or you get called by a wide variety of holdings. If you get called in one place I'd say you'll normally be about 34-35% to win heads up here. (~42% versus unsuited overcards, 40% versus suited overcards, ~23% versus overpairs).

So lets say you get called 40% of the time.

Let's look at actual cEV:
You get called 40% of the time, and you win 34% of the time here. So 34% of the time you win t185,890, 66% of the time you get called you lose t150,890.

When you don't get called, you win t35,000.

So .6*35,000+.264*(-150,890)+.136*(185,890)=21000-39834.96+25281.04= +6446.08 in chips.

I like it. Only if you get called like 60% of the time would it be a -EV play I think. Plus I didn't put the chance of someone calling with an underpair in there.

Brad

#4 10-06-2005, 06:11 PM

Push.. but if you've been pushing a lot lately, expect a call.. if you've been pushing sparsely, then maybe it'll get more respect and you can take the pot right there.. nobody has the stack to take a shot at knocking you out with a marginal hand except the chip leader.. I'd feel more comfortable if the chip leader has already acted, but as it stands I still push

MeanGreenTT · #5 10-06-2005, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's the payouts, there are couple of more short stacks there? Does finishing 3rd vs 5th makes a difference or you really want to win?

[/ QUOTE ]

3k, 1.8k, 1k, 880, 700 and really only 1 player under my chip count and not by much. $300 difference, nope [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

SheepCookers · #6 10-06-2005, 07:00 PM

Considering how flat it is from 5th to 3rd I'd push.

Matador225 · #7 10-06-2005, 07:01 PM

IMO this is largely dependent on your table image and how often you have pushed in the last few orbits. If you have done it several times recently I'd muck it, otherwise a push is fine.

sdplayerb · #8 10-06-2005, 07:11 PM

push

bweiser8311962 · #9 10-06-2005, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BB (t436537)
Hero (t150890)
MP (t1024943)
Button (t134828)
SB (t259802)

[/ QUOTE ]

The small blind (10,000) would have about 40 percent of his stack in play already. The BB would have almost half. I'm not sure either of these players would fold - I don't think I would unless I'm sitting on a REALLY bad hand.

I think this is an easy fold. If you fold this and get crap the next two hands and fold, you are still at about 120K and you've probably lost 1 more player.

MeanGreenTT · #10 10-06-2005, 08:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB (t436,537
Hero (t150890)
MP (t1024943)
Button (t134828)
SB (t259,802)

[/ QUOTE ]

The small blind (10,000) would have about 40 percent of his stack in play already. The BB would have almost half. I'm not sure either of these players would fold - I don't think I would unless I'm sitting on a REALLY bad hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thought, if they had the stacks you think think they have [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]